Full Breakdown
Rebound in Hormuz Shipping Amid US-Iran Deal and Iran’s Route Rejection
6/25/2026, 11:59:22 PM
Reopening the Strait: Traffic Surges After Preliminary Deal
On 25 June 2026, oil through the Strait of Hormuz rose to pre-war levels, with at least 20 million barrels moved in the previous 24 hours, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The rise follows a memorandum signed the week before granting Iran a 60-day free-navigation period; the IMO recorded 57 vessels under a temporary evacuation plan.
Background: War, Ceasefire Framework, and New Shipping Lanes
The war began after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, after which Tehran seized the Hormuz chokepoint. The memorandum includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund and a 60-day free-navigation period. Participants are President Donald Trump, Senator Bill Cassidy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio; Iran’s IRGC naval arm, Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf; GCC members, including Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani; and IMO and Oman, which announced temporary lanes.
Official Statements & Responses
The United States said the deal contains no provision that undermines Gulf security and pledged to block tolls on Hormuz traffic. Iran’s IRGC insisted only routes it designates are authorized, warning vessels that deviate will be dealt with. GCC ministers meeting Rubio in Bahrain expressed optimism, stressing Iran must honor its obligations.
Criticism & Opposition
Senator Bill Cassidy and Republicans demanded clearer details on $300 billion fund, nuclear-inspection regime and toll provisions, saying agreement falls short of war-powers goals. Gulf states warned the fund could strengthen Iran’s military and that lack of a toll-prohibition clause might enable extortion. Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf rejected U.S. claims that unfrozen Iranian assets would be used to buy American agricultural products.
On-the-Ground Reports
British sources said a cargo ship was hit by a projectile 7.5 nautical miles off Oman’s coast, damaging its bridge but causing no injuries or environmental harm. The vessel’s name was not released. Maersk confirmed its container ship Maersk Baltimore completed the transit.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
U.S. officials blamed Iran for the projectile, while Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority gave no attribution. Sources disagree on whether the struck vessel was part of the IMO evacuation list. Reports also conflict on status of Israeli troop withdrawals from southern Lebanon, a factor in Hormuz talks.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This vote puts Iran on notice,” — Donald Trump, President.
- “If that stops, then we’re going to have a problem,” — Marco Rubio, Secretary of State.
- “The only authorized route for passing through the Strait of Hormuz is the one declared by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” — IRGC spokesperson.
- “Everyone should know that the administration of the strait of Hormuz will never go back to the way it was before the war,” — Mohammad Ghalibaf, Speaker.
What’s Next
The 60-day negotiation window will address nuclear inspections, the reconstruction fund and toll rules. Iran and the United States have agreed to station IRGC and U.S. military representatives in Doha to manage disputes. The IMO will reassess the safety of its evacuation routes once non-interference can be verified.
