Carlo Rovelli’s “85 Seconds to Midnight”: A Physicist’s Call Against European Rearmament

In his 2026 book *85 Seconds to Midnight*, Carlo Rovelli argues that European NATO members should stop rearming despite the Russian threat. He says fear fuels an arms race, Russia’s conventional power is limited, and nuclear deterrence creates a perilous stalemate.

The Guardian

Rovelli links today’s anxiety to Cold-War flashpoints, citing the 1962 US missile deployment in Turkey that spurred Soviet missiles in Cuba and the 1991 START treaty, which he credits to scientific advocacy. He also notes a recent bombing of a Russian city as the first strike on a nuclear-armed superpower, underscoring fragility of the ‘no-invade-no-bomb’ principle.

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Rovelli notes that Russia accounts for roughly 4 % of global military spending while NATO collectively represents about 40 %. He also states that Russia possesses more than 4,000 nuclear warheads, the largest stockpile worldwide, underscoring the gap between conventional forces and nuclear deterrence.

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Rovelli warns that calls for increased European armament risk deepening mutual distrust and raising the chance of nuclear escalation. He links the 85-second Doomsday Clock setting (2026 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) to leadership failures of figures such as Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, and NATO officials. He argues that shifting from ‘strengthening one’s own country’ to ‘making humankind better’ is essential to defuse the crisis.

The Guardian

Some commentators label Rovelli’s stance as naïve, arguing that fear of aggression can justify early rearmament and citing the World War II lesson that Western Europe should have rearmed sooner against Hitler. Others note that scientists have enabled and restrained nuclear weapons, pointing to the Manhattan Project’s origin in a mistaken belief about Nazi nuclear capability. Critics also question the feasibility of relying on reciprocal trust when leaders retain the right to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks.

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• “The idea of the Russian military being a threat to Europe is ridiculous. Russia can’t even get to Kyiv! A few years ago, Russia had 4% of the world’s military spending and Nato had 40%.” — Carlo Rovelli, Physicist

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• “We are trapped in a lack of reciprocal trust.” — Carlo Rovelli

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• “What fuels the aggressiveness of Israel is fear. What fuels the aggressiveness of Hamas is fear. They are going to destroy us in Gaza unless we are aggressive. To answer fear with fear, to escalate, seems to me disgusting.” — Carlo Rovelli

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• “I don’t think we should think in terms of absolute right,” — Carlo Rovelli

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The book’s release coincides with renewed NATO debate over defense spending and nuclear posture. As the Doomsday Clock approaches midnight, policymakers in Europe, United States, and Russia are expected to confront the tension between deterrence and disarmament highlighted by Rovelli.

The Guardian