Full Breakdown
Yashar Party Overtakes Likud in Latest Israeli Polls
6/26/2026, 6:02:54 AM
Yashar Surpasses Likud in Latest Poll
A Zman Yisrael poll conducted June 24-25 with 500 respondents projects former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at 23 Knesset seats, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud at 21. The same survey places the Bennett-Lapid “Together” alliance at 17 seats.
Political Context & Election Timeline
Israel must hold national elections by October 27 after a series of inconclusive votes. The current coalition, which includes Ra’am, could fall to 50 seats if Arab parties unite, while opposition parties collectively hold 57-58 seats, leaving the 120-seat Knesset without a clear majority.
Key Parties and Leaders
- Yashar – led by retired General Gadi Eisenkot.
- Likud – headed by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
- Together – the Bennett-Lapid alliance of Naftali Bennett’s Yamina and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid.
- Yisrael Beiteinu – Avigdor Lieberman.
Poll Results Overview
Zman Yisrael projects Yashar 23, Likud 21, Together 17; Channel 13 shows Likud 23, Yashar 20, Together 15; Kan gives Likud 24, Yashar 22, Together 16. All three polls leave no bloc at the 61-seat majority. A modeled Bennett-Eisenkot merger would reach 37 seats, still short of a majority.
Official Statements & Responses
The poll reports that none of the opposition leaders has ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition. It also notes that Zionist opposition parties together hold 62 of the 120 seats, enough to form a coalition. The survey was overseen by Yossi Tatika of Tatika Research & Media with the Adgenda panel.
Criticism & Declining Support for Bennett-Lapid Alliance
Channel 13 and Kan polls both show the Bennett-Lapid alliance slipping to 15-16 seats, down from earlier forecasts. Analysts attribute the drop to voter dissatisfaction with the alliance’s 2021-2022 record and competition from Eisenkot’s rising Yashar platform.
Conflicting Reports & Data Gaps
Yashar’s seat projection ranges from 20 (Channel 13) to 23 (Zman Yisrael); Likud varies between 21 and 24 seats. Sample sizes differ (500 for Zman Yisrael, 553 online for Kan) and Channel 13’s methodology is undisclosed, leaving its margin of error unknown. No poll offers a clear path to a governing majority, underscoring uncertainty about post-election coalition formation.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The survey sees Yashar winning 23 seats if elections were held today, with Likud at 21.” — Zman Yisrael poll
- “If Bennett joins with Eisenkot, the united party, under Eisenkot, would win 37 seats, two more than when separate, while Likud would still have 23, Channel 13 predicted.” — Channel 13 poll
- “Asked to choose between Netanyahu and Eisenkot as prime minister, 43% want Eisenkot and 39% Netanyahu, according to Channel 13.” — Channel 13 poll
- “If the Arab parties unite, the current coalition would drop to 50 seats, the opposition would remain at 58 while the alliance of Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would get 12 seats, the network found.” — Channel 13 poll
What’s Next
Israel’s election must occur by October 27. Parties are expected to negotiate possible mergers, such as a Bennett-Eisenkot union, and to seek support from smaller factions, including the Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am. The final coalition composition will depend on post-election talks, as no poll currently predicts a clear governing majority.
