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EU Methane Rule May Double Gas Prices, Shift Trade

6/26/2026

50 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

EU Enforces Methane

EU will enforce a Methane Regulation from January 2027, fining firms up to 20 % of turnover.
The United States (45 % of EU LNG) and Qatar warned the rules could shift shipments to Asia.
European gas prices, $8 per thousand cubic feet, could rise to $17 if non-compliant supplies are blocked.
A draft offers waiver contracts signed before January 2028, prompting Nigeria, United States and Qatar to say billions in upgrades are required.

Summary

Jorgensen Rejects Reopen

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said the methane regulation will not be reopened, though support will be provided.
MiQ CEO Georges Tijbosch said over 7% of global gas and 30% of U.S. production are EU MRV-certified.
Wood Mackenzie warned half of EU gas imports may be non-compliant.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called the law “crazy” and, with United States, Qatar, Nigeria and Algeria, urged a “stop-the-clock” delay and suspension.

History

Historical Context

After the European Union launched the world’s first large-scale carbon market in 2005, the EU Emissions Trading System grew to cover roughly 40 % of EU greenhouse-gas output across about 10,000 installations. The system’s cap-and-trade model now underpins the 2027 methane rule, which US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Qatar’s energy ministry are urging to delay, fearing costly infrastructure upgrades.

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EU Enforces Methane

EU will enforce a Methane Regulation from January 2027, fining firms up to 20 % of turnover.
The United States (45 % of EU LNG) and Qatar warned the rules could shift shipments to Asia.
European gas prices, $8 per thousand cubic feet, could rise to $17 if non-compliant supplies are blocked.
A draft offers waiver contracts signed before January 2028, prompting Nigeria, United States and Qatar to say billions in upgrades are required.

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