Story perspectives

Newsom, Whitmer Opt Out as Ocasio-Cortez Surges

6/27/2026

Summary

Newsom Polls Drop

McLaughlin poll (June 17-23) shows Kamala Harris 26 %, Gavin Newsom 16 % and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9 %.
AtlasIntel poll (May 4-7, 2,069 adults) gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 26 % and Gavin Newsom 21.2 %.
Kalshi and Polymarket list Gavin Newsom at 24 % and 21 %, and his odds fell from 35.5 % on Jan. 1 to 23.3 % June 23.
Gavin Newsom said in June 2025 he will not run, and Gretchen Whitmer announced in May she will not run in 2028.

Summary

Newsom Courts Faction

Gavin Newsom is positioning himself as the #Resistance Libs’ factional candidate, while the Democratic Party also includes a Left backing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Abundance Libs critical of him.
His California redistricting plan is praised, yet margins and state’s non-swing status limit his electability.
Newsom’s vocal support for President Joe Biden is viewed as a costly signal, while nostalgia-based Obama appeal by Senator Jon Ossoff could be more effective.

History

Historical Context

In 2008 the Democratic contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split the party, with Obama clinching the nomination on June 3 after winning enough pledged delegates and superdelegates (478 versus Clinton’s 246½). That factional battle over polls, money and superdelegate loyalty set a template for today’s intra-Democratic race, where Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vie for the same divided coalition.

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Newsom Polls Drop

McLaughlin poll (June 17-23) shows Kamala Harris 26 %, Gavin Newsom 16 % and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9 %.
AtlasIntel poll (May 4-7, 2,069 adults) gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 26 % and Gavin Newsom 21.2 %.
Kalshi and Polymarket list Gavin Newsom at 24 % and 21 %, and his odds fell from 35.5 % on Jan. 1 to 23.3 % June 23.
Gavin Newsom said in June 2025 he will not run, and Gretchen Whitmer announced in May she will not run in 2028.

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