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England Can Secure Group L Spot by Beating Panama

6/27/2026

Summary

England Clinches

England can clinch a Group L knockout spot by defeating Panama on June 27, 2026.
England currently leads Group L with four points and the best goal difference.
Ghana must earn at least a draw against Croatia at 5 p.m. ET to remain in the top two.
Croatia must beat Ghana to reach six points and guarantee a top-two finish.
A draw would leave Croatia third but still in contention.

Summary

Croatia Advances

The knockout phase runs from June 28 (round of 32) to July 19 (final) after expanding to 48 teams and using head-to-head as tie-breaker.
Third-place qualifiers rank by points, goal difference, goals scored and FIFA rankings.
The Athletic model predicts that a fourth-point third-place finish guarantees a round-of-32 spot, with three-point teams depending on goal-difference.
Croatia has an 86 % chance of advancing.
South Korea’s odds as a third-place qualifier are about 50 %.

History

Historical Context

The 1998 FIFA World Cup in France, the first with 32 teams after expanding from 24 in 1994, showed how tight group results could shift fortunes. Brazil topped Group A while Norway’s late goals overtook Morocco for second place, a dramatic example of ranking nuances that now affect teams such as Croatia.

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England Clinches

England can clinch a Group L knockout spot by defeating Panama on June 27, 2026.
England currently leads Group L with four points and the best goal difference.
Ghana must earn at least a draw against Croatia at 5 p.m. ET to remain in the top two.
Croatia must beat Ghana to reach six points and guarantee a top-two finish.
A draw would leave Croatia third but still in contention.

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