Full Breakdown
Croatia vs. Ghana: Group L Decider at the 2026 World Cup
6/28/2026, 12:53:32 AM
Match Overview: Group L Finale in Philadelphia
Saturday, June 27, at 5:00 p.m. ET, Croatia meets Ghana at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The match decides which side advances from Group L, with both teams needing a result to reach the round of 32.
Group L Stakes and Recent Form
Ghana sits second with four points after a 1-0 win over Panama (Caleb Yirenkyi, 95th minute) and a 0-0 draw with England. Croatia is third with three points, having beaten Panama 1-0 (Ante Budimir, 54th minute) and lost 4-2 to England. Luka Modric earned his 200th cap for Croatia. Ghana’s manager Carlos Queiroz was hired two months before the tournament, and vice-captain Thomas Partey faces a criminal investigation.
Key Players and Coaching Staff
Croatia relies on Luka Modric (88 % pass completion) and forward Ante Budimir, the match-winner against Panama. Ghana’s defense centers on Jerome Opoku (projected 5.5 clearances) and forward Caleb Yirenkyi, the team’s sole scorer. Coaches are Zlatko Dalic (Croatia) and Carlos Queiroz (Ghana).
Data and Betting Odds
Ghana ranks last in possession (29.6 %) and 38th in expected goals (xG 1.4). Croatia is 30th in xG (2.3) and 29th in shots on target (3.5). FanDuel lists Croatia at –130, Ghana at +490, draw at +210; the spread is Croatia –1.5 (+235) and the over/under 2.5 goals. PrizePicks offers a 1.81× payout for a Croatian win, 4.34× for a Ghanaian win, and a 3.44× payout on a –1.5 spread.
Divergent Analyst Predictions
USA TODAY analysts differ: Seth Vertelney expects a 0-0 draw; Jon Arnold predicts a 2-0 Croatian win; Jesse Yomtov foresees 1-0 for Croatia; Victoria Hernandez projects 2-1 for Croatia. SportsLine’s Jon Eimer favors an under-2-goal total.
Verbatim Quotes
- “They sat back [against England], absorbed pressure, and didn't even really try to counter attack,” — Jon Eimer, SportsLine analyst
- “This is an 'if it's not broken don't fix it' kind of situation, and I would expect them to play once again for a nil-nil knowing they are the underdog against Croatia.” — Jon Eimer, SportsLine analyst
- “Croatia vs Ghana predictions Seth Vertelney: Croatia 0-0 Ghana A draw would probably suit both teams and Ghana has been ultra defensive at this tournament.” — Seth Vertelney, USA TODAY
- “Jesse Yomtov: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana Croatia finishes with six points against a Ghana team that has proven tough to break down.” — Jesse Yomtov, USA TODAY
Advancement Implications and Upcoming Fixtures
A Croatian win secures a top-two spot and a round-of-32 place. A draw likely puts Croatia among the best third-placed teams, also advancing them. Ghana needs at least a draw to qualify; a win would move them to second. The victor will meet a pre-drawn opponent in the knockout round.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources disagree on whether a draw alone guarantees Croatia’s progression—some say it does, others say a win is required. No official statements from either federation have been released.
