Full Breakdown
S&P Global Affirms U.S. AA+ Credit Rating, Citing Economic Resilience Amid Fiscal Challenges
6/28/2026, 1:41:24 AM
Core Rating Decision: AA+ Confirmation and Stable Outlook
On 26 June 2026, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed the United States’ sovereign credit rating at AA+—one notch below the top tier—with a stable outlook. The agency highlighted the economy’s resilience, solid fiscal revenue collection, and the expectation that fiscal deficits will remain high but not increase sharply over the next several years.
Historical Context and Rating Trajectory
S&P first downgraded the U.S. from AAA in 2011, a move that provoked sharp criticism from the U.S. Treasury at the time. All three major rating agencies now place the United States one level below AAA, each maintaining a stable outlook.
Principal Actors
- S&P Global Ratings – the rating agency conducting the assessment.
- Lisa Schineller – lead analyst for S&P’s sovereign team.
- U.S. political parties – whose partisan divide limits coordinated deficit-reduction efforts.
- U.S. Treasury – historically critical of S&P’s 2011 downgrade.
Economic and Fiscal Metrics
- Growth forecast: 2 % annualized GDP growth projected for 2026-2029.
- Recent performance: Q1 2026 GDP revised upward to a 2.1 % annualized rate, above the 1.6 % estimate from Reuters-polled economists.
- Debt trajectory: Net general government debt expected to approach 100 % of GDP as nondiscretionary interest costs and aging-related spending rise.
- Revenue sources: Continued tariff income cited as a stabilizing factor for fiscal deficits.
Significance for Markets and Policy
A stable AA+ rating underpins confidence in U.S. Treasury securities and helps contain borrowing costs. However, S&P warned that a rating slip could occur within two years if deficits rise sharply or if policymakers fail to manage spending and tax-code revenue impacts. The agency also noted that heightened political polarization introduces “comparatively sharper swings in policies,” raising long-term fiscal uncertainty.
Official Statements & Responses
S&P emphasized that “broad revenue buoyancy, including solid tariff income, should help mitigate the risk of fiscal slippage.” The agency credited “strong institutions and the system of checks and balances” for anchoring policy outcomes despite partisan divides. It also identified robust AI investment as a key pillar of future capital formation, while acknowledging uncertainty about long-term productivity gains.
Criticism & Opposition
The agency’s more cautious stance reflects criticism that U.S. political leaders lack the ability to “redress deterioration of the sovereign’s fiscal profile.” Historical backlash from the Treasury in 2011 underscores lingering skepticism toward rating agencies’ judgments.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Growth expectations: S&P’s 2 % forecast contrasts with earlier Reuters-based expectations of 1.6 % growth, indicating divergent views on the economy’s momentum.
- AI productivity: S&P highlighted AI investment but admitted that the magnitude of future productivity gains remains uncertain, leaving a notable analytical gap.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The US economy’s resilience should support solid fiscal revenue collection, including from continued tariffs, and stabilize fiscal deficits over the next several years,” — Lisa Schineller, S&P Global Ratings analyst
- “Broad revenue buoyancy, including solid tariff income, should help mitigate the risk of fiscal slippage,” — S&P Global Ratings
- “It also said that robust AI investment was expected to remain a key pillar of overall investment, though it added that the longer-term productivity gains from AI remain uncertain at this stage.” — S&P Global Ratings
- “The dimmer view takes into account political polarization “with comparatively sharper swings in policies, particularly under a unified government,” S&P said.” — S&P Global Ratings
Outlook and Upcoming Developments
S&P’s next rating review will consider the trajectory of the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and any substantive shifts in fiscal policy. Monitoring of deficit trends, tariff revenue stability, and the materialization of AI-driven productivity will be central to assessing whether the AA+ rating can be maintained beyond the two-year risk horizon.
