Story perspectives
US Car Sales to Slip 2 Million, Fleet Ages 12.8 Years
6/28/2026
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Story summary
- Bain expects U.S. vehicle sales to fall by over 2 million units by 2040.
- The 2025 fertility rate was 1.6 births per woman, below replacement, with immigration projected to halve net migration.
- Registrations by 18- to 34-year-olds fell from 12 % in Q1 2021 to under 10 % by mid-2025.
- Average vehicle age hit a record 12.8 years in 2025, prompting intensified competition among about 450 nameplates and market consolidation.
