Full Breakdown
Democrats Hold Slight Leads in Ohio Senate and Gubernatorial Races, New Poll Shows
6/29/2026, 5:01:19 AM
Core Poll Shows Democrats Slightly Ahead
A new AARP poll of 800 likely Ohio voters (June 14-16) shows Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown at 48 % versus Republican Jon Husted at 45 % for the Senate. Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 47 % to 44 % for governor. No candidate reaches 50 %; margin of error ±3.5 points.
Ohio’s Political Context
Ohio has moved from a swing state to a reliably Republican one; Trump won by 11 points in 2024 and now has 42 % approval versus 55 % disapproval. Democrats see the 2026 midterms as a chance to flip the Senate seat despite the state's rightward trend.
Candidates
Sherrod Brown, former U.S. senator, faces appointed Republican Jon Husted for the Senate. Amy Acton, former Ohio health director, runs against businessman Vivek Ramaswamy for governor.
Poll Numbers and Age Gaps
The AARP poll gives Brown a 22-point lead among voters 18-49 and Acton a 24-point lead, while Husted leads voters 50+ by 8 points and Ramaswamy by 10.
National Stakes
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority; Democrats need four net gains to take control, and Ohio is a top target. A Democratic win would narrow the Republican margin and affect the 2026 Congress.
Official Statement
Jon Husted’s campaign, via Amy Natoce, says voters rejected Brown in 2024 and will not reverse that decision.
Opposition View
Republicans criticize Brown’s long tenure and lack of achievements. AARP data show only 28 % of Ohio adults identify as Democrats versus 41 % Republicans, and Democratic favorability among 18-49 voters trails by three points.
Conflicting Polls
Polls differ on lead: AARP shows Brown ahead by three points; a Fox poll gives him an eight-point advantage; other surveys favor Husted. Varying margins of error keep the dynamics unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Sherrod Brown spent 32 years in Washington with nothing to show for it. Polls will go up and down all summer. What won’t change is that voters fired Brown two years ago after looking at this record, and they’re not willing to go backwards now,” — Amy Natoce, Husted spokesperson
- “Apart from the soured mood, Sherrod Brown is a known commodity and was able to attract a solid number of Trump voters in 2024,” — Robert Alexander, Bowling Green State University professor
- “ Political advertising in the state resembles the “purple Ohio vibes from the 2000s,” he said, noting that it seems 2026 will be a competitive year for Democrats in Ohio.” — Robert Alexander
- “You also see that Democrats are showing up in places that Trump really widened gaps in Republicans' favor. Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton are campaigning in more rural areas and focusing on kitchen table topics. Ohio has always had a populist streak and leaning into it is good politics for Democrats in this moment,” — Robert Alexander
Upcoming Steps
Ohio voters must register by Oct. 5 for the Nov. 3 election. Further polling and prediction-market updates are expected.
