Texas Senate Race Becomes Toss-up in Latest Poll

New York Times/Siena poll released June 27 shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton each at 47 percent among likely Texas voters, a virtual tie for the U.S. Senate seat. The survey records 94 percent of Democrats and 91 percent of Republicans backing their party’s candidate, with 58 percent of independents favoring Talarico versus 31 percent for Paxton. Margin of error: 4.5 points.

The HillNew York Times

Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas for decades. In 2024, former President Donald Trump won the state by 14 points, with Hispanic gains driven by irregular voters likely to stay home in midterms. The new poll shows a reversal: Hispanic voters now back Talarico 61 percent to 29 percent.

New York Times

State Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in March, focusing on education and voting-rights. Attorney General Ken Paxton beat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary and serves as the GOP’s establishment candidate.

The Hill

• Black voters: 80 % Talarico, 13 % Paxton; Hispanic voters: 61 % Talarico, 29 % Paxton.

The Hill

• Educated white voters: 49 % Talarico, 48 % Paxton; non-educated white voters: 68 % Paxton, 27 % Talarico; non-white voters: 63 % Talarico, 28 % Paxton.

The Hill

Texas Pulse poll earlier in June showed a tie at 46 % each.

The Hill

A Democratic win would end the party’s decades-long statewide losing streak and could indicate shifting voter alignments, especially among Hispanic and Black voters. The poll attributes Democratic strength to a favorable national political environment and a matchup that pits an unpopular Republican against a popular Democratic nominee.

New York Times

Former President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton, framing the race as between an “unpopular Republican” and a “popular Democratic nominee.” Talarico said voters are weary of “politics as professional wrestling” and nicknames. Paxton’s campaign has used the nickname “Low-T Talarico” in ads.

The Hill

The race features attacks, such as Trump’s “Alfred E. Neuman” jab and Paxton’s “Low-T” nickname, which critics say distract from policy and may lower voter confidence.

The Hill

NYT/Siena and Texas Pulse polls both show a tie but differ slightly (47 % vs. 46 %). Both rely on likely-voter models and lack actual turnout data, leaving uncertainty about midterm participation.

New York Times

• “I honestly get the sense that people across the spectrum, across the state are tired of this ‘politics as professional wrestling,’ right? You got these old guys lathered up in their fake tan, throwing corny nicknames at each other,” — James Talarico, Texas State Representative

The Hill

• “Low-T Talarico.” — Ken Paxton (as reported nickname)

The Hill

• “The poll finds Democrats benefiting from a favorable national political environment, and a favorable matchup between an unpopular Republican and popular Democratic nominee.” — The New York Times

New York Times

Both campaigns will intensify outreach before the November ballot, focusing on Hispanic and Black voter mobilization. Additional polling is expected as the election nears, and the result will decide whether the seat stays Republican or flips Democratic.

New York Times