Strait of Hormuz Shipping Faces Uncertainty Amid Iran-U.S. Cease-fire Strains

After a weekend of Iranian-U.S. strikes, Kpler data showed 40 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, up from 24 the day before. The surge followed a tentative cease-fire and a 60-day negotiation period, but fresh attacks on 25 June and 27 June cut daily movements to as few as ten ships, underscoring the route’s volatility.

New York Times

The conflict began after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on 28 February, prompting Iran to block the strait. A 14-point memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June obliges Iran to keep the waterway open for 60 days, to clear mines within 30 days, and to negotiate future administration with Oman. Article 5 specifically requires “safe passage… without charge” while allowing Iran to decide the strait’s management.

Al Jazeera (website)ABC News AustraliaNew York PostIran Discourages Ships From Using Alternative Strait of Hormuz Route Along Oman’s Coast

Kpler reported 73 transits on Wednesday, 54 on Thursday, and a low of 40 on Saturday. Roughly half of the ships used Iran’s coastal corridor; the remainder followed an alternative route along Oman’s coast, often under U.S. escort. Super-tankers re-entered the Gulf, including three empty VLCCs operated by South Korea’s Sinokor, the Saudi-flagged VLCC Nisalah (Bahri), and a Marshall Islands-flagged Suezmax owned by a Greek operator. More than 60 % of India-bound vessels disabled AIS transponders (“went dark”) on both routes.

Hormuz traffic rebounds as supertankers return to the Persian Gulf

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that only routes authorised by Tehran would be guaranteed safe passage. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi reiterated that de-mining “is carried out solely by Iran.” The United States, via President Donald Trump, declared that “violence will be met with violence.” Oman’s foreign minister Badr al-Busaidi affirmed Oman’s commitment to “safe and free navigation” under international law and rejected transit fees. French President Emmanuel Macron announced French-Omani cooperation to clear mines, describing the effort as securing “free and unconditional passage.” IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Domínguez warned of possible mines, noting that over 80 would need removal before normal traffic could resume.

YnetNews

Maritime analysts argue that Iran’s insistence on a coastal corridor limits capacity and raises navigation risk. U.S. officials accuse Tehran of breaching the MoU by attacking vessels on the Omani side. Critics warn that proposed tolls or “insurance” fees could contravene international maritime law and further deter shipowners.

France 24

On 25 June a cargo ship was struck by a missile 7.5 nm southeast of Dahit, Oman, after taking the Omani route. Two days later the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely was hit by a drone, and the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku suffered a drone strike on 27 June. Iranian forces forced four tankers on the Omani side to turn back, while three others completed transits after altering course.

Over 60% Of India-Bound Ships Go Dark While Crossing Strait Of Hormuz Amid US-Iran Tensions

Sources differ on daily vessel counts, ranging from 24 to 73 ships in a single day. The IMO’s mine alert contrasts with Iranian statements denying any mine deployment. Iranian officials deny that technical talks are scheduled, while U.S. officials confirm a forthcoming Doha meeting. The extent and impact of “going dark” on traffic monitoring remain uncertain.

YnetNews

• “We have decided to collaborate, in conjunction with our partners, on clearing mines from the Strait in order to secure maritime routes and guarantee free and unconditional passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” — Emmanuel Macron, President of France

YnetNews

• “Iran signed a ceasefire agreement. We have honoured it. … But violence will be met with violence.” — Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary (quoting President Trump)

Al Jazeera (website)

• “All understandings regarding the strait must remain within the framework of international law,” — Badr al-Busaidi, Omani Foreign Minister

YnetNews

Technical teams from Iran and the United States are slated to meet in Doha to address navigation disputes. France and the United Kingdom have pledged mine-clearing expertise, while Iran and Oman continue bilateral talks on future management. The outcomes will determine whether tolls are introduced and how quickly traffic can approach pre-war levels.

YnetNews