Potential £460 million Tax Rise on UK Slot-Machine Shops and Casinos Under Andy Burnham’s Proposed Policy

If Labour leader Andy Burnham becomes prime minister, his government could double the machine-games duty (MGD) on “Category B” £2-a-spin slot machines from 20 % to 40 %. The Social Market Foundation (SMF) estimates the change would add between £275 million and £458 million to the £600 million already collected, producing a total tax increase of roughly £460 million. The measure would apply to adult gaming centres (AGCs), commonly called “slot sheds”, as well as to larger casino operators such as Admiral (Austrian-owned) and Merkur (German-owned).

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AGCs expanded rapidly after the 2005 Gambling Act introduced the “aim-to-permit” rule, which obliges licensing authorities to favour new gambling premises. Burnburn has repeatedly called for greater local-authority control. In April, the Devolution Act introduced “gambling impact assessments”, allowing councils to weigh the density of existing venues when deciding on licences. The most recent budget, delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, raised taxes on online casinos but left physical slot-machine duty unchanged.

Slot machines and casinos could face £460m tax hike under PM Burnham – CDC Gaming

• Andy Burnham – Labour leader, former junior minister, advocating tighter regulation.

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• Social Market Foundation – Think-tank producing the tax-impact analysis and public-support polling.

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• Bacta – Trade body representing AGCs and amusement arcades.

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• Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) – Industry lobby group for betting shops and casinos.

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• Godden Gaming / Palace Amusements – Operator of a proposed 24-hour venue in Enfield.

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• Rick Harrison – Local campaigner opposing the new venue.

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• Keir Starmer – Labour Party leader, recipient of a letter signed by 300 MPs urging repeal of the “aim-to-permit” rule.

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SMF’s polling shows 43 % of the public would back a Labour-led tax rise on AGCs. Operators have reported record takings, prompting the think-tank’s estimate of a £275-£458 million revenue boost. The proposal deliberately excludes lower-stakes “Category C and D” fruit machines in pubs to protect hospitality-sector income.

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Burnburn has framed the tax as a means to curb exploitation of vulnerable communities and to fund social programmes, linking it to a previous proposal by Gordon Brown to replace the two-child benefit cap. The government’s recent Devolution Act measures give councils a modest tool to limit venue density. The BGC, while not having reviewed the SMF report, warned that a higher MGD could jeopardise jobs and push patrons toward unregulated markets.

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Bacta dismissed the SMF analysis as “fantasy economics and grossly irresponsible”, arguing the increase would reduce overall tax take and lead to job losses. The BGC echoed concerns that a 40 % rate would “devastate high streets and seaside towns”.

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In Enfield, campaigner Rick Harrison highlighted that “there are already 18 gambling premises within 1.5 miles,” arguing that new venues “increase crime and antisocial behaviours” and crowd out other community services.

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SMF predicts a substantial rise in tax revenue, whereas Bacta contends the policy would shrink the tax base and cut employment. No independent impact study has yet reconciled these opposing forecasts, leaving the net fiscal effect uncertain.

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• “fantasy economics and grossly irresponsible” — Bacta, trade body spokesperson

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• “A 40% rate would devastate high streets and seaside towns, close responsible family-run businesses and risk pushing customers away from safe, regulated environments towards the illegal market,” — Betting and Gaming Council representative

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• “There are already 18 gambling premises within 1.5 miles,” — Rick Harrison, local campaigner

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• “Why do we have to accept that it’s only vape shops and gambling shops that can open? I can’t see that it’s doing anything positive for the community.” — Rick Harrison, campaigner

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• “As part of our new application, we have undertaken an in-depth local area risk assessment to identify and mitigate against all potential risks associated with upholding the licensing objectives.” — Godden Gaming, applicant

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Should Burnburn assume the premiership, the tax proposal would likely be introduced as part of a broader gambling-reform package. Local councils are expected to apply the new gambling impact assessments in pending licence hearings, while industry groups prepare legal challenges. Monitoring of illegal-market activity and employment trends in the sector will be central to evaluating the policy’s effectiveness.

The Guardian