Record Economic Pessimism Among Russians Amid Ongoing War

A Gallup phone survey of 1,000 Russian adults conducted March 14-May 6, 2026 found 60% say local economic conditions are worsening—the highest share since 2006. Only 27% view conditions as improving and 9% see no change. A majority, 56%, also report that living standards are deteriorating.

Reuters

The pessimism follows a wartime economy that is slowing despite elevated defense spending. Russia’s 2026 growth forecast was cut from 1.3% to 0.4% as higher global oil prices—spurred by the Iran conflict—and gasoline shortages after intensified Ukrainian strikes on refineries strain supply. Labor shortages have deepened as military recruitment competes with civilian employment, increasing reliance on defense outlays.

Gallup

Confidence in the Russian military fell to 66% from 80% in 2022; confidence in the national government dropped to 53% from 66%. Trust in the honesty of elections fell by 16 points to 40%, and perceived media freedom declined by 25 points to 34%. Regarding the job market, 35% say it is a good time to find work, while 58% say it is a bad time.

Gallup

Russian ministers have publicly acknowledged that the economy is overheating and linked the slowdown to war-related demands. In response, the government lowered its 2026 growth projection to 0.4%, despite higher global oil prices linked to the Iran war.

Gallup

The poll records the largest single-year drops in confidence for the military, government, elections and media freedom since Gallup began tracking these metrics. The convergence of economic pessimism and eroding trust in institutions indicates broader public dissatisfaction beyond material conditions.

Gallup

Both Reuters and Gallup summaries present identical figures for economic pessimism, confidence levels and job-market sentiment, showing internal consistency. The data stem from a single phone survey of 1,000 respondents; no regional breakdowns or demographic trends beyond 2022 are provided, leaving gaps in a fuller understanding of public opinion.

Gallup

• "Russians are more pessimistic about the state of their economy than at any time in the past 20 years." — Gallup poll (Reuters)

Gallup

• "A record-high 60% of Russians interviewed between March and May said their local economic conditions are getting worse." — Gallup poll (Gallup)

Reuters

• "Confidence in the Russian military was down to 66%, from 80% in 2022." — Gallup poll (Reuters)

Reuters

• "The longer the war grinds on, the more it may test people's patience with the conflict and the sacrifices it demands." — Gallup analysis

Gallup

With the war in Ukraine ongoing, further shifts in public sentiment are expected. Continued reliance on defense spending may limit economic recovery, while persistent fuel shortages could deepen everyday hardships.

Gallup