Story perspectives

June Tankan: Inflation 2.7%, Record Non-Manufacturing Sentiment, Capex Split

7/1/2026

Summary

Story summary

June Tankan shows firms raised year-ahead inflation expectations to 2.7% and big-manufacturer sentiment to +22, large non-manufacturers posted +37 (highest since Aug 1991) and employment diffusion index stayed at –37, showing a labour shortage.
Large firms forecast 11.5% capex rise and 6.7% profit fall in FY2026/27, small firms expect an 8.3% capex cut, deeper than 4.5% forecast, and companies assume the dollar will average 152.57 yen and the euro 175.62 yen.

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Story summary

June Tankan shows firms raised year-ahead inflation expectations to 2.7% and big-manufacturer sentiment to +22, large non-manufacturers posted +37 (highest since Aug 1991) and employment diffusion index stayed at –37, showing a labour shortage.
Large firms forecast 11.5% capex rise and 6.7% profit fall in FY2026/27, small firms expect an 8.3% capex cut, deeper than 4.5% forecast, and companies assume the dollar will average 152.57 yen and the euro 175.62 yen.