Full Breakdown
PATA Mid-Year Forecast Projects Asia-Pacific Tourism Surpassing Pre-Pandemic Levels by 2028
7/1/2026, 2:11:43 PM
Forecast Overview
The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), together with the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), released its Asia-Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028: Mid-Year Update. The model projects 714.9 million international visitor arrivals (IVAs) in 2026, rising to 758.8 million in 2027 and 789.2 million in 2028—equivalent to 115.6 % of 2019 levels. The outlook covers 39 destinations across the region.
Destination Performance Highlights
Among the ten largest markets, Vietnam is forecast to post the strongest growth (31.2 % increase, reaching 27.8 million IVAs between 2025-2027). Other notable gains include Macao (+19.4 %), Japan (+15.8 %), Hong Kong SAR (+13.9 %), Türkiye (+12.7 %), and Malaysia (+11.6 %). China remains the region’s biggest destination with 157.8 million arrivals projected for 2027, but its growth slows to 2.2 % over 2025 levels. Thailand and the USA are expected to record modest increases of 5.2 % and 9.0 %, respectively.
Mongolia is slated to achieve the highest recovery rate, reaching 177.8 % of its 2019 arrivals by 2028. Japan, the Maldives, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka are also projected to exceed pre-pandemic benchmarks, while Thailand will only return to its 2019 level in 2028. Overall, 27 destinations are expected to surpass pre-pandemic volumes in 2027, rising to 30 in 2028.
Outbound Source Market Projections
The forecast identifies China as the largest outbound source, generating nearly 127 million visitor arrivals across Asia-Pacific in 2027—an ?18 % increase from 2025. The USA follows with 65.2 million outbound travelers, also growing about 18 %. Additional significant sources include South Korea (ROK), Canada, and Mexico, though growth rates vary.
Risks, Challenges, and Growth Opportunities
PATA highlights several headwinds: escalating geopolitical tensions, energy-market volatility, rising fuel and aviation costs, and air-connectivity constraints. Inflation and higher living costs in source markets may curb discretionary travel, especially among middle-income households and long-haul travelers.
Conversely, the report cites opportunities such as expanding airline networks, new airport infrastructure, visa-facilitation measures, and strengthening intra-regional travel demand—factors expected to sustain growth across many destinations.
Official Statements from PATA and PolyU
*PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid* emphasized that the forecast “demonstrates the remarkable resilience of Asia-Pacific tourism” and underscored the need for “timely, data-driven insights” as destinations navigate “geopolitical uncertainty, evolving traveller behaviour, connectivity challenges, and rising operational costs.”
*Professor Haiyan Song, Director of RCDTT at PolyU,* noted that the update “provides annual and quarterly forecasts for 39 destinations, alongside analysis of major source markets, destination performance trends, and the macro-economic and geopolitical factors shaping the future of tourism.”
Key Figures Behind the Forecast
- Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) – regional tourism body.
- The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) – academic partner.
- Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) – analytical hub.
- Noor Ahmad Hamid – PATA Chief Executive Officer.
- Haiyan Song – Director, RCDTT.
Implications for Tourism Stakeholders
Destination marketing organisations, airlines, airports, and investors can leverage the forecast to refine strategic planning, allocate resources, and prioritize agility and innovation in a rapidly shifting environment. The data-driven outlook is intended to guide policy decisions, marketing campaigns, and infrastructure investments across the Asia-Pacific tourism ecosystem.
Access and Further Research
The full report is available for purchase on the PATA website: www.pata.org/research-q1v63g6n2dw/p/apac-visitor-forecast-2026-2028-midyear-update. Stakeholders are encouraged to consult the detailed quarterly breakdowns for deeper market insights.
