Story perspectives

White Conservatives Outpace Liberals in Fertility, Shaping Future Demographics

7/1/2026

Summary

Story summary

Researchers used 1970-2022 Social Survey data from 22,975 U.S. adults and found right-wing respondents 1943-1947 kept fertility at or above replacement (2.1) while left-wing respondents fell below it.
White conservatives displayed a growing reproductive advantage compared with Black Americans, whose birth rates stayed similar across politics.
The authors say modern contraception likely caused the left-leaning fertility decline and warn the gap may raise the conservative share in the U.S. population.

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Story summary

Researchers used 1970-2022 Social Survey data from 22,975 U.S. adults and found right-wing respondents 1943-1947 kept fertility at or above replacement (2.1) while left-wing respondents fell below it.
White conservatives displayed a growing reproductive advantage compared with Black Americans, whose birth rates stayed similar across politics.
The authors say modern contraception likely caused the left-leaning fertility decline and warn the gap may raise the conservative share in the U.S. population.