Story perspectives

ADP: Private Payrolls Add 98,000 Jobs, Below Forecast

7/1/2026

Summary

ADP Reports Jobs

ADP Research reported that U.S. private-sector payrolls added 98,000 jobs in June 2024.
The June rise beat Bloomberg’s median forecast of 120,000 after a 122,000-job May gain.
Education and health services supplied about half of the hires, with trade, transportation, utilities and finance adding the rest.
Workers who changed employers earned 6.6% more YoY versus 4.4% for stayers, which ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said reflects a low-hire, low-fire market.

Summary

ADP Signals Slowdown

The ADP June jobs report was softer than expected, giving the Fed room to pause or cut rates later in 2026.
Analysts say the miss reflects borrowing costs, weaker consumer demand, and heightened business caution.
The slowdown was broad-based, affecting both goods-producing and service-providing industries.
Investors and policymakers see the ADP data as a preview of the BLS employment release, which could raise the chance of a rate cut before year-end.

Summary

Labor Participation Drops

Labor participation rate fell to 61.8% in May, the lowest since December 2021.
Companies with fewer than 50 employees added 53,000 jobs in June, versus 25,000 added by firms with 500 or more employees.
A watchdog warned that additional safeguards are still needed after the Bureau of Labor Statistics took steps to fix data-release failures.

Summary

ADP Tracks Wages

The ADP National Employment Report draws on anonymized weekly payroll data from more than 26 million private-sector workers.
ADP’s Pay Insights records over 15 million individual pay-change observations each month, enabling granular wage tracking.
The report is produced with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, adding academic collaboration.
Chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson said supply constraints in some industries are slowing job creation, emphasizing the report’s high-frequency approach.

History

Historical Context

After the Fed slashed rates and the Treasury launched the $700 billion TARP in 2008 to unfreeze credit, the United States entered a prolonged low-rate era that persisted through the 2020 pandemic. In June 2024, ADP’s payroll report, analyzed by chief economist Nela Richardson and Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab, showed a 98,000-job gain, reviving debate over a Fed rate-pause.

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ADP Reports Jobs

ADP Research reported that U.S. private-sector payrolls added 98,000 jobs in June 2024.
The June rise beat Bloomberg’s median forecast of 120,000 after a 122,000-job May gain.
Education and health services supplied about half of the hires, with trade, transportation, utilities and finance adding the rest.
Workers who changed employers earned 6.6% more YoY versus 4.4% for stayers, which ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said reflects a low-hire, low-fire market.

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