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Markets Give 33% Split Congress; Democrats Lead Polls

7/1/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Betting markets give a 33% chance that Congress will split, with Republicans keeping the Senate and Democrats taking the House.
RealClearPolling generic congressional voting polls show Democrats at 48.5% and Republicans at 42.9%.
In primaries, GOP candidates have largely rallied behind President Donald Trump’s preferred nominees, while progressive Democrats backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani defeated incumbents in New York.

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Story summary

Betting markets give a 33% chance that Congress will split, with Republicans keeping the Senate and Democrats taking the House.
RealClearPolling generic congressional voting polls show Democrats at 48.5% and Republicans at 42.9%.
In primaries, GOP candidates have largely rallied behind President Donald Trump’s preferred nominees, while progressive Democrats backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani defeated incumbents in New York.