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Democrats Lead in Five of Six Senate Battleground States

7/1/2026

29 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The NYT/Siena poll of 3,659 likely voters (June 15-29) shows Democrats ahead in five of six Senate battleground states.
The tightest margins are in Alaska and Ohio, both within the poll’s 5-point sampling error.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton each have 47% support.
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek 48% to 46% while Democrats must net four seats to control the Senate.

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Story summary

The NYT/Siena poll of 3,659 likely voters (June 15-29) shows Democrats ahead in five of six Senate battleground states.
The tightest margins are in Alaska and Ohio, both within the poll’s 5-point sampling error.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton each have 47% support.
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek 48% to 46% while Democrats must net four seats to control the Senate.