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Tesla Forecasts 402k Q2 Deliveries, Europe Surge, US Slows

7/2/2026

36 7 Full Breakdown

Summary

Tesla Projects Rise

Tesla expects Q2 2026 deliveries of about 402,000 vehicles, a 5% YoY rise.
The company delivered 358,023 vehicles in the prior quarter, up 6.3% YoY.
June registrations doubled in France and rose 39% in Denmark and 56% in Sweden.
U.S. sales stay weak as the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expires in September.
Analysts set a median price target of $431.65 while Michael Burry shorted Tesla at $416.

Summary

**BYD Outpaces Tesla**

BYD delivered 557,090 fully electric vehicles in Q2 2026, surpassing Tesla by more than 160,000 units.
BYD’s export push aims for 1.5 million overseas sales in 2026, exceeding its own 1.3 million target.
BYD has outpaced Tesla in Europe for several straight months, including the continent’s two largest EV markets.
Domestic Chinese sales slipped after the government removed the EV purchase-tax exemption, briefly narrowing BYD’s lead.

Summary

Tesla Shares Surge

Tesla shares jumped 8.4% after the NHTSA closed a safety probe, yet they stay down 17% YTD.
Insiders sold $21.7 million of stock in three months, prompting screens that show a 43% premium to the GF Value model with a $288.10 fair value versus $412.
Morgan Stanley lifted its Q2 estimate to 413,000 vehicles and Barclays to 418,000, prompting analysts to warn that deliveries below this range could spark a mixed reaction.

History

Historical Context

Congress created a $7,500 federal plug-in electric vehicle credit in 2009, spurring early adopters such as Nissan’s Leaf (100 k sales by 2015) and Tesla’s Model S (launched 2012). After Tesla reached the 200,000-vehicle cap in July 2018, the credit began phasing out, and with its expiration the company now projects 402,000 Q2 2026 deliveries while Chinese rival BYD already shipped 557,090 EVs worldwide.

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Tesla Projects Rise

Tesla expects Q2 2026 deliveries of about 402,000 vehicles, a 5% YoY rise.
The company delivered 358,023 vehicles in the prior quarter, up 6.3% YoY.
June registrations doubled in France and rose 39% in Denmark and 56% in Sweden.
U.S. sales stay weak as the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expires in September.
Analysts set a median price target of $431.65 while Michael Burry shorted Tesla at $416.

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