Full Breakdown
Russia Turns to Indian Gasoline Imports as Ukrainian Drone Strikes Cripple Domestic Refining
7/2/2026, 12:52:29 AM
Escalating Fuel Shortage Across Russia
Ukrainian long-range drones have knocked out roughly 30 % of Russia’s oil-refining capacity, cutting gasoline output by about 25 % year-on-year. Summer demand reaches ? 110 000 t day?¹, while operational refineries now produce only ? 85 000 t day?¹, creating a daily deficit of ? 25 000 t. The gap has produced nationwide rationing, queues that sometimes turn violent, and a record-high retail price of 71.2 rubles l (? $3.47 gal?¹).
Data & Statistics
- Daily gasoline consumption (summer): 110 000 t.
- Current domestic production: 85 000 t day?¹.
- Shortfall: ? 25 000 t day?¹ (? 20 % of demand).
- Price increase YTD: 9.8 %; weekly spike: 3 %.
- Government reserves: 1.7 million t (? 15 days of peak demand).
- Belarus rail deliveries (first half June): > 70 000 t (tripling May volumes).
- Planned imports: 400 000 t month?¹ from multiple sources.
- Initial Indian shipment: >= 60 000 t on two tankers (30-40 000 t each).
Official Government Measures
President Vladimir Putin announced a ban on gasoline and jet-fuel exports, a possible halt to diesel exports, and the redeployment of the 1.7 million-ton reserve. The State Duma approved tax-code amendments that subsidise foreign gasoline purchases, with subsidies pegged to Indian delivery costs. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia is already importing 100-150 000 t month?¹ from Belarus and is negotiating additional supplies with Kazakhstan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that imports will proceed “if agreements can be reached at acceptable price points.”
International Sourcing: Indian Seaborne Imports and Regional Assistance
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, has dispatched at least 60 000 t of gasoline to Russia via two tankers; the supplying refinery has not been identified. India’s refineries have been processing record volumes of Russian crude—? 2.6-2.7 million bbl day?¹ in June—allowing them to export refined fuel back to Russia. Belarus has increased rail shipments to > 70 000 t, while Kazakhstan has signalled willingness to deliver 50 000 t of AI-92 gasoline as humanitarian aid, though its Energy Ministry notes no formal request has been received and sanctions risk could complicate payment.
On-the-Ground Impact
Drivers in Moscow, Rostov-on-Don and Crimea report caps of 20-30 L per purchase, long lines, and occasional confrontations at pumps. In Crimea a state of emergency was declared on 21 June. A 37-year-old entrepreneur, Dmitry, described daily “pain in the neck” from dwindling supplies and suspected that some stations may be throttling fuel to drive up prices.
Criticism & Opposition
Economic analyst Maksim Blant (Radio Liberty) warned that the fuel crisis deepens an already unprecedented budget deficit and could impede further interest-rate cuts, threatening broader economic stability. Public frustration is evident in social-media videos of fights and accusations of price manipulation.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on Belarusian deliveries (70 000 t rail vs. 100-150 000 t month?¹) and on the exact daily shortfall (25 000 t vs. “about 20 % of demand”). The identity of the Indian refinery(s) remains undisclosed, and Kazakhstan’s formal request for aid has not been confirmed.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Unfortunately, there are still queues at gas stations, and the required grade of gasoline cannot always be found.” — President Vladimir Putin
- “If agreements can be reached at acceptable price points, then imports will move forward.” — Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson
- “Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Sunday that Russia is already importing between 100,000 and 150,000 metric tons of gasoline per month from Belarus and is negotiating additional supplies with Kazakhstan, although only one Kazakh refinery is considered capable of exporting fuel to Russia.” — Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
- “The current fuel crisis is taking place against the background of the budget crisis ... [with] an unprecedented budget deficit,” — Maksim Blant, economic analyst, Radio Liberty
- “After that [strike], there was less and less gasoline, and now we have this pain in the neck.” — Dmitry, 37-year-old Moscow entrepreneur
What’s Next
Russia continues talks with India and regional partners to scale up imports, while monitoring further Ukrainian drone attacks that could exacerbate the shortfall. The subsidy mechanism tied to Indian pricing is expected to remain active pending stabilization of domestic supplies.
