Full Breakdown
Wedbush Initiates Coverage of SpaceX, Projects $2.48 Trillion Enterprise Value
7/2/2026, 6:06:18 AM
Wedbush Initiates Coverage with $190 Target
Wedbush Securities started coverage of SpaceX on Tuesday, giving an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, an 11% premium to the $170.86 close. Its sum-of-parts model values the firm at roughly $2.48 trillion enterprise value, anchored by Starlink and an AI compute business.
Business Segments Underpinning Valuation
Starlink serves about 12 million users, yields $66 ARPU, and reports $19.3 billion revenue with a 49% gross margin. Wedbush treats this recurring revenue as the valuation core. The AI compute unit is a hyperscaler prospect, while Starship is a launch layer that could lower costs and enable AI services.
Analysts, Executives, and Credit Outlook
Dan Ives, Wedbush’s Global Head of Tech Research, authored the note. CEO Elon Musk said short-term setbacks are inevitable but AI and robotics will drive long-term growth. Evercore’s Roger Altman warned valuation models struggle with SpaceX’s scale and AI exposure. Fitch and S&P gave a BBB rating after an unsecured notes issuance.
Market Reaction
SpaceX shares rose over 4% intraday after the note and settled near $167. The stock has been volatile since its June 12 debut, and a bond sale has intensified scrutiny of the $2.48 trillion valuation.
Official Statements & Responses
Wedbush said its model emphasizes Starlink’s recurring revenue and AI upside while excluding optional value from Starship’s sub-$200/kg economics, orbital data centers, and AI monetization. Musk reiterated that AI and robotics will power growth despite challenges. Altman noted difficulty applying valuation frameworks to SpaceX, and BBB rating reflects the firm’s debt-repayment plan.
Criticism, Conflicts, & Gaps
Analysts flagged the valuation as high relative to current revenue, noting the AI compute unit’s early stage and execution risk over the next two to three years. Wedbush’s $2.48 trillion estimate assumes strong AI demand, yet the AI unit is not fully quantified. Optional value from Starship and AI monetization is acknowledged but excluded, creating a gap between projected upside and accounted assets. The bond sale and valuation-bubble concerns have been cited as investor cautions, and the timeline for sub-$200/kg launch costs remains unspecified.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” — Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities.
- “ Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share.” — Dan Ives.
- “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.” — Dan Ives.
- “We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.” — Dan Ives.
