July 4 Aurora Forecast: Potential Northern Lights Across the United States

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts geomagnetic storm conditions from G2 (moderate) to G3 (strong) on the night of 3 July through 4 July 2026, potentially producing aurora on the northern horizon in up to 26 U.S. states.

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A June 30 X1.1 flare and ten M-class flares in the next 24 hours launched multiple CMEs at speeds up to 1,900 mi s?¹. NOAA SWPC (Shawn Dahl), NASA, the UK Met Office, and solar physicist Dr. Tamitha Skov are issuing the forecasts.

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• 30 June 2026 – X1.1 flare and first CME.

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• 1–2 July 2026 – Additional Earth-directed CMEs and early aurora reports in northern U.S. (NOAA).

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• 3–4 July 2026 – G2 storm forecast (Kp 5) with possible escalation to G3 (Kp 7); activity may persist.

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Kp indices of 5–7 (G1-G3) are expected. Up to 26 states could see aurora, including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Alaska, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Kansas, and Missouri. CME speeds may reach 1,900 mi s?¹, and R3-level HF radio blackouts have already occurred.

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An aurora could precede Independence Day fireworks, offering a natural light show. The storm also poses brief high-frequency radio disruption. Short summer nights and lingering twilight may limit visibility for many observers.

Northern Lights could dazzle the sky in these states due to solar storm ahead of Fourth of July

NOAA SWPC says moderate (G2) storms are likely, with a chance of stronger (G3) activity if CME magnetic fields align. The UK Met Office notes a slight possibility of a G3-class storm. NASA reports the July 2 flare released X-rays that reached Earth in eight minutes, causing the R3 radio blackout.

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Experts warn that aurora visibility requires clear, dark skies and favorable storm timing. If peak activity occurs before sunset, daylight will outshine the display. The waning Strawberry Moon and lingering twilight further reduce observation windows.

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NOAA emphasizes a G2 outcome, while SpaceWeather.com and the UK Met Office cite possible G3 conditions. State coverage ranges from a core northern tier to broader lists that include mid-Atlantic and Midwestern states. Model uncertainties remain about CME magnetic orientation.

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“A series of direct+glancing blows beginning on July 3rd could spark G2 to G3-class geomagnetic storms over the 4th of July holiday weekend,” — SpaceWeather.com

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“X” is the highest classification available for solar flares, but “1” is the weakest level in that tier. “[It was a] rather impulsive event, meaning it was fairly quick, it didn’t last very long, but clearly a lot of energy there.” — Shawn Dahl, Service Coordinator, NOAA SWPC

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“Machine-Gun Sun.” — Tamitha Skov, Solar Physicist

Solar flares spark northern lights hopes for July 4 weekend

“The burst of X-rays released during the eruption reached Earth in just over eight minutes, triggering strong (R3) radio blackouts across the sunlit side of the planet.” — NASA

Northern Lights could dazzle the sky in these states due to solar storm ahead of Fourth of July

NOAA will update the Kp index hourly. Observers should check the SWPC site, find dark locations away from lights, and use long-exposure phone or camera settings between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. for the best chance to capture aurora.

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