Full Breakdown
West African Weather Risks Drive Sharp Rise in Global Cocoa Prices
7/2/2026, 11:49:30 AM
Sharp Price Rally Linked to West African Weather Risks
September ICE New York cocoa settled up 2.23% (+111) and July ICE London cocoa rose 2.80% (+104). On the following day the New York contract added 0.28% (+14) while the London contract was unchanged. Over the previous two weeks futures have climbed more than 20%, touching 5.5-month highs before modestly easing.
Weather Threats to Ivory Coast and Ghana Harvests
Heavy rains have flooded roads and blocked farmer access to farms and ports in Ivory Coast and Ghana. June rainfall already matches the typical monthly total, raising the risk of brown rot and black pod disease that can cut yields. Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño on June 10, and NOAA assigns a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño,” which would later bring warmer, drier conditions to West Africa and further stress cocoa trees.
Supply Outlook and Market Data
Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop project 1.8 MMT, an 18% drop from the 2.2 MMT expected for 2025/26. The country has shipped 2.04 MMT to ports for the marketing year (Oct 1 2025 – Jun 28 2026), a 20% increase year-over-year, yet production for 2025/26 is forecast to fall 10.8% to 1.65 MMT. Nigeria’s May cocoa exports rose 28% YoY to 18,034 MT, but the Nigeria Cocoa Association expects an 11% production decline to 305,000 MT in 2025/26. ICE cocoa inventories reached a 1.75-year high of roughly three million bags. First-quarter grindings fell in North America (-3.8% YoY to 106,087 MT) and Europe (-7.8% YoY to 325,895 MT, the lowest Q1 in 17 years) while Asia posted a 5.2% YoY increase to 223,503 MT.
Official Forecasts and Policy Responses
Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed the El Niño, and NOAA estimates a 67% probability of a Super El Niño. StoneX cut its global cocoa surplus forecast for 2026/27 to 149,000 MT (down from 267,000 MT) and for 2025/26 to 247,000 MT (down from 287,000 MT), citing West African weather risks. Ghana reduced the farmgate price paid to cocoa farmers by roughly 30% in February, and Ivory Coast lowered its price by 57% in March for the mid-crop harvest of 2025/26.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
ICE inventory figures differ: 2,948,286 bags were reported Thursday, while 3,017,796 bags appeared on Wednesday, indicating rapid changes. The source text truncates the Ivory Coast port shipment figure after “farmers shipped 2.”, leaving the exact total beyond the earlier 2.04 MMT unclear.
Outlook
July surveys of the Ivory Coast crop will refine the 2026/27 harvest estimate. Ongoing monitoring of El Niño development by NOAA and regional agencies will shape yield projections. Market participants will watch for further adjustments to surplus forecasts and any additional policy moves by the major West African producers.
