Full Breakdown
Ossoff Leads Collins in Fox News Poll as Georgia Senate Race Tightens
7/2/2026, 11:00:26 PM
Poll Results Show Ossoff With Double-Digit Lead
A Fox News-sponsored survey of 1,002 registered Georgia voters conducted June 23-27, 2026 found incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff at 56 % support and Republican challenger Mike Collins at 43 %, a 13-point margin within a ±3-point sampling error. The poll weighted respondents by age, race, education and geographic area to reflect the statewide voter file and noted that 24 % of non-MAGA Republicans say they intend to vote for Ossoff.
Recent Campaign Context
Ossoff secured his Senate seat in a narrow 2021 runoff, defeating David Perdue by just over one percentage point. Collins, a U.S. Representative, won the June GOP runoff after receiving a last-minute endorsement from President Donald Trump, beating Derek Dooley, who was backed by Governor Brian Kemp. The race follows Trump’s 2024 win in Georgia by roughly two points after a 2020 loss.
Voter Demographics and Issue Priorities
Ossoff leads Black voters (87 %), independents (68 %), voters under 30 (68 %), moderates (66 %) and women under 45 (66 %). Collins’ strongest groups are White evangelical Christians (79 %), White men without a college degree (65 %) and rural voters (55 %). About half of gun-owner households (53 %) and veterans (50 %) favor Collins. Inflation is the top issue for 40 % of voters, followed by healthcare (13 %) and immigration (11 %). Ossoff enjoys a 21-point advantage among inflation-concerned voters and a 40-point lead among those prioritizing healthcare, while Collins leads by 45 points among immigration-focused voters.
Candidate Favorability and Perceived Alignments
Ossoff holds a 58 % favorable versus 38 % unfavorable rating; Collins trails at 44 % favorable and 47 % unfavorable, while former President Trump registers 42 % favorable. Concern about candidate alignment is split: 53 % of respondents worry Collins is too close to Trump, compared with 47 % who view Ossoff as too liberal.
Official Statements & Responses
The poll’s release noted that 81 % of Ossoff supporters are certain to vote and equally motivated, while 78 % of Collins supporters are certain and 84 % are highly motivated. Analysts highlighted inflation as the dominant voter priority and emphasized the potential for ticket-splitting, with 11 % of Ossoff voters indicating support for Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson and 5 % of Collins voters favoring Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics of Collins focus on his perceived closeness to Trump, a factor cited by a majority of voters. Collins’ campaign attacks Ossoff’s voting record on large spending bills and tax-cut legislation. Conversely, Ossoff’s rhetoric targets Collins and Trump as detrimental to working-class Georgians, framing the race as a choice between “self-made” and “silver spoon” candidates.
Verbatim Quotes
- “As Brooklyn Dodgers’ announcer Red Barber used to say, Ossoff is ‘sitting in the Catbird seat’” — Daron Shaw, poll analyst
- “My hunch is the race will become much more competitive, but Collins has work to do convincing Republicans and independents that he and the president can make things more affordable for rank-and-file Georgians.” — Daron Shaw, poll analyst
- “Jon Ossoff voted for one of the largest spending bills in American history, helping drive up the cost of gas, groceries, and housing for Georgia families,” — Mike Collins, X post
- “Then he voted against the Working Families Tax Cuts, which delivered a tax cut of more than $3,000 for the average Georgian this year.” — Mike Collins, X post
- “I never want to hear these two pretend they give a damn about working people again,” — Jon Ossoff, rally remark
- “Because while hundreds of thousands of Georgians lose their health care, Mike Collins builds Trump a ballroom.” — Jon Ossoff, rally remark
Why It Matters
Georgia remains a pivotal swing state; a double-digit lead for Ossoff could solidify Democratic control of the Senate, while a competitive race may energize Republican turnout. The demographic splits and issue salience suggest both campaigns must tailor outreach to distinct voter blocs, and ticket-splitting could influence the concurrent gubernatorial contest.
What’s Next
The Senate election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Both campaigns are expected to intensify advertising and voter-contact efforts, particularly among inflation-concerned and immigration-focused constituencies, as the margin of error leaves room for shifts before Election Day.
