Russia Arms Civilian LNG Tanker Marshal Vasilevskiy in the Baltic Sea

In May 2024 Estonian authorities released photographs of the Gazprom-owned LNG tanker Marshal Vasilevskiy sailing between the Gulf of Finland and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The images show two sandbag-reinforced 12.7 mm Kord heavy machine-gun mounts on either side of the bridge, each capable of engaging targets up to 2 km away. The vessel, a civilian merchant ship, is not listed among Russia’s sanctioned “shadow fleet.” The ship also carried about two dozen individuals with prior Russian military experience, further blurring civilian and combat roles.

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The Baltic corridor transports roughly £75 billion of Russian oil and gas each year, generating about £225 million daily revenue. Moscow has intensified hybrid-warfare tactics, using civilian vessels for intelligence gathering and, increasingly, for self-defence. Since early 2024, nine shadow-fleet tankers have been seized by France, the United Kingdom and other NATO members, prompting Russian officials to warn against blockades of key maritime routes.

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Maritime affairs adviser Nikolai Patrushev told reporters that Russia cannot allow a blockade of its key routes and must keep its fleet combat-ready against the full spectrum of threats. Estonia’s navy commander later said detaining vessels without an immediate threat would be halted because the risk of military escalation is too high.

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Yoruk Isik, head of the Bosphorus Observer, argued that placing a machine gun on a civilian ship in the Baltic has no self-defence justification and signals a drift toward lawlessness on the high seas. Defense analyst Patrick Bolder described the armament as a deliberate effort to pressure NATO, suggesting the move is more about strategic signalling than genuine protection against Ukrainian sea-drone attacks.

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Analysts disagree on the primary motive for the gun installations. Some view the armament as a deterrent against Ukrainian sea-drone strikes, while others interpret it as a signal to NATO to discourage further seizures of Russian merchant vessels. Russian officials have offered no public justification beyond protecting vital routes, leaving the strategic intent ambiguous.

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• “We cannot allow the blockade of our key maritime routes. It is crucial to ensure the timely dispersal and combat readiness of the [Russian] fleet, its ability to counter the full spectrum of threats.” — Nikolai Patrushev, maritime affairs adviser to President Vladimir Putin

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• “This is part of putting pressure on NATO countries,” — Patrick Bolder, defense expert, HCSS think tank, The Hague

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• “There is no justification for a self-defence posture like a machine gun in the Baltic… This clearly shows that the high seas are becoming increasingly lawless.” — Yoruk Isik, head of Bosphorus Observer

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• “The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said this activity had included using a sanctioned tanker located off Hull to launch drones to spy on Nato nuclear weapon capabilities by overflying RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk.” — International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

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