Independent Voters: Predominantly Moderate Ideologues Seeking Flexible Politics

Research published in *American Politics Research* by Eveline Dowling (University of California, Davis), Nathan K. Micatka (University of South Alabama), and Caroline Tolbert (University of Iowa) finds that voters unaffiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties are overwhelmingly moderate. The authors describe independents as “holding moderate ideologies and desiring a system focused on open-mindedness rather than rigid political labels.”

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Catalist voter-file data indicate that independent registrants are, on average, younger than partisan voters, with the 25-39 age group most likely to avoid a party label. They also have lower rates of college attainment. Ideologically, well over half of independents register as moderates, and in both 2020 and 2022 more than nine-in-ten are classified as ideological moderates. National polls show that over forty percent of United States adults prefer not to belong to either major party, yet many are excluded from closed-primary ballots.

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The 2022 Collaborative Midterm Survey (?19,500 respondents) reports that a majority of Americans view independents as eager to work across party lines and open to opposing viewpoints. Both Democrats and Republicans assign generally favorable attributes to unaffiliated voters, especially highly educated respondents. Strong partisans label independents “strategic bridge builders” capable of facilitating compromise.

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Historical scholarship sometimes portrays unaffiliated voters as lacking political knowledge or as covert partisans who hide true preferences to evade social stigma. These perspectives argue that the independent label may signal civic disengagement or strategic concealment rather than authentic moderation.

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The authors acknowledge that Catalist’s ideology scores are probabilistic estimates, not direct self-reports, limiting precision. They also note the survey’s omission of questions on broader political trust and institutional reform, recommending future work on ranked-choice voting and nonpartisan redistricting. The study suggests that expanding primary ballot access for independents could “alter the entire political landscape” by rewarding moderate candidates.

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If independents truly favor compromise, granting them legal rights to vote in primaries could boost turnout among this “quiet moderate” group and incentivize parties to nominate centrist candidates, potentially reducing partisan hostility.

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• “Research published in American Politics Research shows that most independent voters hold moderate ideologies and desire a system focused on open-mindedness rather than rigid political labels.” — Eveline Dowling, researcher

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• “Well over half of the independent individuals registered as moderate in their political beliefs across the three time periods evaluated.” — Nathan K. Micatka, researcher

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• “In both 2020 and 2022, the modeled data showed that more than nine out of ten independent voters were ideological moderates.” — Caroline Tolbert, researcher

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• “The survey revealed that a majority of Americans believe independents are eager to work across party lines.” — 2022 Collaborative Midterm Survey

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The authors propose follow-up studies on independents’ preferences for ranked-choice voting, nonpartisan redistricting, and broader political-trust metrics to guide primary-rule reforms.

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