Full Breakdown
Super Typhoon Bavi Looms Over the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands and Guam
7/3/2026, 9:15:49 AM
Bavi’s Rapid Intensification and Projected Path
Bavi, now about 700 mi east of Guam, is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. JTWC projects 1-minute winds of 250 km/h (155 mph) and possible Category 5 strength by July 5; JMA forecasts 10-minute winds of 180 km/h (110 mph) and central pressure near 925 hPa. The storm is expected to cross Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam on Sunday, with landfall near Tinian around 22:00 UTC (08:00 ChST).
Forecast and Potential Impacts
The western Pacific produces ~25 tropical storms each year, 16 becoming typhoons; the Marianas see 6-7 annually. Recent major storms include Category 4 Super Typhoon Sinlaku (April 2026) and Category 5 Super Typhoon Yutu (Oct 2018), causing over $2 billion in damage. Warm sea-surface temperatures (29-30 °C) and low wind shear favor Bavi’s rapid intensification to Category 5, with 160-mph winds, 910 mb pressure and 4-5 inches per hour rain that could trigger flash floods and surge on Guam’s weakened seawalls.
Official Guidance
NWS Guam urges residents to finish preparations by Saturday, warning conditions may worsen Sunday. JTWC expects rapid intensification to super-typhoon strength. The U.S. Coast Guard, coordinating with local agencies, has moved cutters to safety, secured small boats and advises the public to avoid water activities, secure equipment and follow official updates.
Community Response and Infrastructure Concerns
On Saipan, residents still in shelters report long gasoline lines. Former lawmaker Edwin Propst said the community is preparing for another major storm so soon after Sinlaku. Local pastor Francis Hezel said, “this is getting to be the normal thing now, typhoon preparedness.” Guam’s drainage cannot handle the 5-7-inch-per-hour rain rates, seawalls remain damaged, and no active watches or warnings have been issued, raising concerns about alert timeliness.
Conflicting Forecasts and Gaps
JTWC predicts 1-minute winds of 160 mph (Category 5) and pressure 910 mb; JMA estimates 10-minute winds of 110 mph and pressure 925 hPa. Track forecasts differ between a southern pass near Tinian and a possible shift toward Guam, leaving uncertainty about which islands will see the strongest winds. No formal tropical-storm watches or warnings are in effect.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We’re getting ready to do this all over again,” — Edwin Propst, former lawmaker
- “Super typhoons are equivalent to a high-end Category 4 or Category 5 storm, Stanko said.” — Paul Stanko, NWS Guam
- “Our team is moving boats, securing our base, and getting our cutters underway — the community has that same window to get ready, and it's closing. Don't wait for the warning to tell you what you already know is coming. Use today to prepare.” — Jessica Worst, Coast Guard
- “Aydlett said the best-case scenario is that Guam over-prepares for a tropical storm.” — Landon Aydlett, NWS Guam
What’s Next
JTWC and JMA will issue updates every six hours. After the Marianas, Bavi may affect Japan’s Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan or eastern China later in the week. Residents should monitor the NWS Guam website and local emergency channels for watches, warnings and evacuation orders.
