Oil Prices Slip After Doha Talks Indicate Reduced Strait of Hormuz Tension

Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded on Wednesday in Doha, Qatar, with both sides reporting “positive progress” on maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Within hours, Brent futures fell 73 cents (1.02%) to $70.84 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 83 cents (1.21%) to $67.75 a barrel, marking the lowest levels in four months. A parallel report from CNBC recorded Brent at $70.77 and WTI at $67.67, confirming a broadly similar decline.

CNBC

The Strait of Hormuz, which carried roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies before the war, has seen intermittent closures and a recent exchange of strikes after an Iranian attack on a cargo vessel. Partial resumption of tanker traffic was noted, and U.S. Vice President JD Vance said oil flows through the waterway had returned to pre-war levels, though no quantitative data were provided.

Reuters

The price drop coincided with a 3.8 million-barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories to 408.4 million barrels, the lowest since September 2018, according to the Energy Information Administration. Analysts had projected a 4.5 million-barrel draw, indicating a smaller-than-expected reduction. Haitong Futures warned that the reopening of the strait, combined with expectations of oversupply, could keep downward pressure on prices. Sources indicated OPEC+ is likely to raise its output target by about 188,000 bpd for August, matching the increases approved for June and July.

Reuters

Qatar’s statement highlighted “positive progress” in the Doha talks. JD Vance emphasized the restoration of oil flows through the strait. President Donald Trump told reporters the negotiations were “going well” and described the denuclearization process as “moving along well.” Senior Iranian officials reiterated Tehran’s intent to secure international recognition of its control over the strait, even by force, and announced plans to impose tolls on shipping starting in mid-August. OPEC+ representatives signaled readiness to adjust production in line with market conditions.

Reuters

Analysts cited by Haitong Futures warned that the combination of resumed traffic and a potential OPEC+ output hike could exacerbate an oversupply situation, further depressing prices. Iranian plans to levy tolls have raised concerns among regional shipping firms about added costs and possible disruptions once the toll-free period ends.

Reuters

Price figures differ slightly between Reuters (Brent $70.84, WTI $67.75) and CNBC (Brent $70.77, WTI $67.67). Inventory expectations also diverge, with the Energy Information Administration reporting a 3.8 million-barrel draw versus analyst forecasts of 4.5 million barrels. No specific data were provided to substantiate the claim that oil flows have returned to pre-war levels.

Reuters

• “positive progress” — Qatar

Reuters

• “Vice President JD Vance ?saying oil flows through the waterway had returned to pre-war levels, without citing figures.” — JD Vance, U.S. Vice President

Reuters

• “The denuclearization of Iran is moving along well,” — Donald Trump, U.S. President

CNBC

• “They've had very good meetings and we'll see.” — Donald Trump, U.S. President

CNBC

• “Iran is determined to win international recognition of itscontrol over the straiteven if it has to do so by force, two senior Iranian sources said.” — Senior Iranian source

Reuters

OPEC+ will meet on Sunday to finalize the August output increase. Tehran plans to begin toll collection in mid-August, pending confirmation. Market participants will continue monitoring Strait traffic and any further diplomatic developments in Doha.

Reuters