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Full Breakdown

Burnham’s Tax Plans Face Bank-Tax Debate

7/3/2026, 12:51:22 PM

Core Tax Proposal and Funding Challenge

Andy Burnham, elected MP for Makerfield and likely prime minister, said Labour’s 2024 manifesto allows raising business rates on warehouses to fund a 20 % cut for pubs, clubs and music venues and to exempt small retailers. He also must fund Sir Keir Starmer’s £15 bn defence increase, which Labour says needs at least £4 bn of revenue.

Numbers Driving the Debate

NatWest posted £7.7 bn pre-tax profit for 2025 (+24 %); Lloyds £6.7 bn (+12 %); Barclays £9.1 bn (+13 %). The TUC says reinstating the bank surcharge could raise £9 bn over four years. Burnham has not disclosed expected revenue from higher warehouse rates.

Official Statements

Burnham told LBC he would “take my responsibilities to fund the defence plan” and said tax shift would stay within manifesto limits. The TUC urged a “radical change” to tax wealth and windfall profits. Bank executives warned a bank tax would be “economic suicide”. Kemi Badenoch said Sir Keir is “leaving this mess to his successor”.

Opposition Views

Bankers say the sector pays an effective tax rate of about 46.4 %, above Frankfurt (38.9 %) and New York (27.9 %). They argue a bank tax would drive investment abroad. The TUC says one in five people are skipping meals and that “we can’t afford to be held hostage by people defending the status quo.” Jim O’Neill warned against “backdoor ways of raising taxes” on business.

Conflicting Figures and Unknowns

The TUC’s £9 bn estimate for a revived bank surcharge lacks independent verification. Burnham has not disclosed projected revenue from higher warehouse rates or which departmental savings would cover the defence shortfall. The future chancellor, who will shape the final tax package, remains undecided.

What’s Next

Burnham must name a chancellor before the autumn Budget, when the tax package will be set. The Treasury will decide whether to revive the bank surcharge, adjust warehouse rates or seek other savings. Parliamentary scrutiny of the defence plan and bank-tax legislation is expected to intensify after the government takes office.

Verbatim Quotes

  • “When one in five people are skipping meals, you can’t afford to be held hostage by people defending the status quo,” — Paul Nowak, General Secretary, TUC
  • “A bank tax isn’t an economic policy, it is economic suicide,” — Senior banker, speaking to The Guardian
  • “We can’t just keep avoiding what are seen as difficult choices and having backdoor ways of raising taxes. And we certainly shouldn’t raise them on business,” — Jim O’Neill, former Goldman Sachs chief economist
  • “leaving this mess to his successor” — Kemi Badenoch, Conservative Party leader