Story perspectives

Gold $4,100, Silver $61—Rate-Hike Odds Near 50%

7/3/2026

Summary

Gold Rises

Gold rose above $4,100 per ounce on Thursday after June payrolls missed forecasts.
Silver jumped to $61.38 per ounce as the dollar index slipped about 0.7%.
June non-farm payrolls added 57,000 jobs while unemployment fell to 4.2% and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations were moderating.
CME FedWatch showed the chance of a September rate hike fell from about 66% to just under 50%.

Summary

Unemployment Rises

Labor force fell 700,000, raising unemployment to 4.2%.
Since President Donald Trump returned, workforce dropped 1.3 million, leaving 1.5 million fewer workers than January 2025.
Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao said unemployment decline reflects leaving labor market, and noted San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Dalysaid warned growth may stall if consumers have not felt gains.
United Overseas Bank expects the Fed to keep rates through 2026 and cut them in late 2Q 2027.

History

Historical Context

In 1980 Paul Volcker’s Federal Reserve lifted the federal-funds rate to about 20%, sparking a recession that pushed unemployment to roughly 7.5% by early 1981. Nearly 45 years later, the 2024 labor-force in the United States slipped 4.2% while gold surged past $4,100, echoing investors’ reaction to persistent rate-policy financial global uncertainty.

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Gold Rises

Gold rose above $4,100 per ounce on Thursday after June payrolls missed forecasts.
Silver jumped to $61.38 per ounce as the dollar index slipped about 0.7%.
June non-farm payrolls added 57,000 jobs while unemployment fell to 4.2% and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations were moderating.
CME FedWatch showed the chance of a September rate hike fell from about 66% to just under 50%.

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