America's Wheat Harvest Plummets to 150-Year Low Amid Drought and Cost Pressures

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service projects the 2026 wheat harvest will cover 32 million acres, the smallest harvested area in 150 years. Wheat-planted acreage is 42.7 million acres, a six-percent decline from 2025.

Newsweek

May 2025–April 2026 was the warmest 12-month period on record, according to NOAA, and drought left wheat water-stressed. Kansas suffered a March-April and a May freeze, reducing yields. Fuel and fertilizer prices surged after the Strait of Hormuz closure, raising growers’ input costs.

Newsweek

Planting fell to 42.7 million acres (-6 % YoY) and harvest is about 32 million acres, the lowest since 1877. Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma face drops of 0.95, 3.9 and 1.35 million acres. Spring wheat planted 9.39 million acres (-6 %) and durum wheat 1.83 million acres (-16 %). Wheat supplies 20 % of calories and protein for poorest; USDA projects 2026/27 price at $6.50 per bushel.

Newsweek

USDA notes farmers received only 11.8 cents of each food dollar in 2024, limiting impact on consumers. The National Association of Wheat Growers says high input costs and market uncertainty are forcing growers to reduce wheat acreage. USDA says wheat stocks are sufficient for flour mills, though prolonged drought could erode them.

Newsweek

Experts say underinvestment in wheat research hurts competitiveness. Mark Sorrells of Cornell notes most wheat varieties come from plant breeders at Land-Grant universities, which receive far less funding than corn and soybean sectors. Eric Olson of Michigan State University warns wheat farmers need strong markets and compensation, as value-chain disruptions can affect prices. The Trump administration’s restrictions on Land-Grant funding are cited as a barrier to developing competitive wheat varieties.

Newsweek

• “Harvest reductions in 2026 are due to many factors converging this year. We have faced consecutive years of heat, drought and disease pressure that have set back yields.” — Eric Olson, Associate Professor, Michigan State University

Newsweek

• “Across the country, farmers continue to face stubbornly high input costs, ongoing uncertainty in global markets, and the continual challenge of achieving profitability on the farm.” — Sam Kieffer, CEO, National Association of Wheat Growers

Newsweek

• “corn and soybeans have become more profitable than wheat.” — Mark Sorrells, Professor of Integrative Plant Science, Cornell University

Newsweek

USDA will issue its full 2026/27 wheat outlook later this year, updating price forecasts and stock assessments. If drought persists or input costs rise, acreage reductions could deepen, tightening supplies and raising flour and bakery prices. Stakeholders are watching research funding decisions that could affect U.S. wheat competitiveness.

Newsweek