Dow Sets Record as Global Markets Diverge Amid AI Stock Volatility and Oil Price Fluctuations

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record 52,900.07, up 1.1% from the prior session. The S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8% to 25,382.67. U.S. markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday, and futures edged lower. AI-related equities displayed a split pattern: some rose, while major chip makers fell, pulling the broader indexes toward a mixed close.

Asian shares rally after Dow hits a record, as some AI shares bounce back

The surge in artificial-intelligence demand has lifted many technology stocks this year, but recent price corrections suggest investors are reassessing the profitability of massive chip and data-center spending. Analysts note that AI-driven valuations may have risen faster than underlying earnings, prompting a sell-off in key semiconductor names.

Asian shares rally after Dow hits a record, as some AI shares bounce back

• Equities: Samsung Electronics rose 7-8%; SK Hynix gained 4.9-10.9%; Nvidia slipped 1.4%; Micron Technology fell 5.5% after a 10.6% plunge; Lam Research dropped 10.2%.

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• Job market: U.S. employers added 57,000 jobs in June, below the 100,000 forecast and slower than May.

Asian shares rally after Dow hits a record, as some AI shares bounce back

• Oil: Brent crude reported at $71.76, $72.26, and $70.60 in different feeds; U.S. benchmark crude listed at $68.48, $69.05, and $67.52.

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• Currencies: The dollar traded at 161.14-161.81 yen; the euro ranged from $1.1392 to $1.1451.

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Capital Economics economists Megan Fisher and Vicky Redwood warned that “AI demand may continue to grow but at a slower pace than expected,” adding that firms may be underestimating adoption barriers. Their note suggests that the sector’s growth trajectory could temper the enthusiasm that drove recent price gains.

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The same Capital Economics analysis cautions that the scale of AI-related investment may outpace near-term financial returns, raising doubts about the sustainability of current market enthusiasm. This perspective aligns with broader concerns that a potential oversupply of chips could dampen future earnings.

Asian shares rally after Dow hits a record, as some AI shares bounce back

• June 26 rally: South Korea’s Kospi climbed 2.8% to 7,863.22, led by Samsung (+7%) and SK Hynix (+4.9%). Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9% to 69,368.30; Tokyo Electron slipped 2.5%, while Kioxia jumped 6.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.7%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.3%.

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• June 27 slump: The Kospi fell 7.9% to 7,648.09, with Samsung down 9.1% and SK Hynix down 14.6%. Tokyo’s Nikkei dropped 2.5% to 68,733.15; Tokyo Electron shed 7.4%. The Shanghai Composite slipped 1.6% to 4,046.76.

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Sources differ on oil price levels (Brent $70.60-$72.26; U.S. crude $67.52-$69.05) and on the magnitude of Asian index moves (Kospi +2.8% vs -7.9%). No source provides a definitive timeline linking the job-creation figure to the market moves, leaving a gap in understanding the causal relationship.

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• “Asian stocks found some footing after two bruising tech-led sessions, with the Korean market once again showing how quickly a stretched rubber band can snap back when everyone leans the same way,” — Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management

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• “AI demand may continue to grow but at a slower pace than expected,” — Megan Fisher, Capital Economics

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• “Firms and investors may be underestimating the barriers to AI adoption.” — Vicky Redwood, Capital Economics

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Analysts will watch the Federal Reserve’s policy stance as lower inflation could reduce the impetus for further rate hikes. Oil markets remain sensitive to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, while the trajectory of AI investment will hinge on whether adoption barriers ease or persist.

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