Turkey’s Strategic Pivot: Europe’s Security Calculus Amid Shifting Alliances

On 7-8 July, Ankara will host the NATO summit, gathering leaders of all 32 member states, United States and officials from Gulf and Asia-Pacific. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler described the meeting as a chance to reaffirm alliance unity, boost defence spending, and address evolving security environment.

Reuters

After years of discord, President Emmanuel Macron has signalled a willingness to revive French-Turkish ties. Former ambassador Gerard Araud cited overlapping interests in Syria, Lebanon and Iran, and said Paris has ordered a review of the French-Italian SAMP/T air-defence system to meet Turkish co-production demands. A Safran-Baykar partnership integrates Safran’s Euroflir sensors onto Baykar’s TB2 drones.

Middle East EyeTurkey tightens security and showcases strength and commitment ahead of NATO summitReutersBrussels can't ignore Turkey. But can't embrace it eitherEuronews

Turkey’s defence exports reached $10 billion in 2023, with 56 % sold to NATO allies. Ankara aims to meet NATO’s 5 % of GDP defence-spending target by 2035 and to fulfil capability goals by 2029, focusing on drones, anti-drone systems, air-defence and cyber capabilities. Guler said Turkey remains open to co-production, including SAMP/T or Patriot purchases.

ReutersTurkey tightens security and showcases strength and commitment ahead of NATO summitMiddle East EyeBrussels can't ignore Turkey. But can't embrace it either

On 1 July, EU chief Kaja Kallas, Commissioner Magnus Brunner and Commissioner Marta Kos met President Erdogan in Ankara. The joint statement called Turkey a “key partner on security, migration and energy” and pledged cooperation on a possible EU mission in Lebanon. EU officials also discussed modernising Turkey’s customs-union access and participation in the Single European Payments Area, noting democratic standards.

EuronewsBrussels can't ignore Turkey. But can't embrace it eitherMiddle East EyeTurkey tightens security and showcases strength and commitment ahead of NATO summit

French analyst Dorothee Schmid argues that Turkey’s “autocratic course” and power-based policy clash with European democratic values, echoing the European Parliament’s report naming Turkey the EU candidate with a democratic decline. Turkish officials counter that French positions, such as France’s defence treaty with Greece, serve commercial interests and that Ankara would never attack Greece.

Middle East Eye

Sources differ on the SAMP/T sale: French officials have paused the deal, while Defence Minister Guler says Ankara is evaluating “all options,” including SAMP/T. Turkey warns that excluding it from European defence initiatives is “strategically inaccurate.”

Reuters

• “NATO continues to be an unparalleled and fundamental platform for Euro-Atlantic security and defence.” — Yasar Guler, Turkish Defence Minister

Reuters

• “'We will be facing Russian pressure.” — Gerard Araud, former French ambassador

Middle East Eye

• “Türkiye is a key partner on security, migration, and energy, as well as an EU candidate country,” — Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief

Euronews

• “The EU has never been clear about what it wants from Turkey and has often relied on a transactional approach,” — Dorothée Schmid, head of Turkey program at IFRI

Brussels can't ignore Turkey. But can't embrace it either

The July 7-8 NATO summit will test Turkey’s role as a bridge between U.S. and European security priorities. France’s SAMP/T review and the Safran-Baykar partnership could yield joint-production contracts, while EU officials plan to raise democratic concerns with President Erdogan and explore deeper customs-union and payments-area integration.

Brussels can't ignore Turkey. But can't embrace it either