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Poll: Netanyahu Breakaway Secures 16 Seats, Likud Falls

7/4/2026

50 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

A Maariv poll projects that if Benjamin Netanyahu leaves Likud to run with a party, his faction would win 16 seats while Likud would fall to seven.
The October 27, 2026 Knesset election pits Netanyahu’s Likud against Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party, which campaigns on unity and an inquiry into the October 7 attacks.
Analysts say Netanyahu’s coalition will depend on Shas and United Torah Judaism, while a Gantz-led centrist bloc could be kingmaker.

History

Historical Context

In 1973 Likud formed and in the 1977 “Mahapach” it won 43 seats, ending Labor’s three-decade rule and depending on Shas and United Torah Judaism (12 seats). Netanyahu repeated the formula after winning the first direct prime-ministerial election in 1996, again courting the same Haredi blocs. Analysts view the 2026 Likud-Eisenkot race as another test of that enduring reliance.

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Story summary

A Maariv poll projects that if Benjamin Netanyahu leaves Likud to run with a party, his faction would win 16 seats while Likud would fall to seven.
The October 27, 2026 Knesset election pits Netanyahu’s Likud against Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party, which campaigns on unity and an inquiry into the October 7 attacks.
Analysts say Netanyahu’s coalition will depend on Shas and United Torah Judaism, while a Gantz-led centrist bloc could be kingmaker.

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