Full Breakdown
Spotify Removes 500,000 Artificial Streams After Prediction-Market Manipulation
7/4/2026, 11:54:36 PM
Chart Manipulation of Malcolm Todd’s “Earrings”
Spotify confirmed that more than 500,000 streams of Malcolm Todd’s song “Earrings” were identified as artificial and removed from its charts. The adjustment dropped the track from Number One on the U.S. daily chart to Number Four. The manipulation was linked to activity on prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, where users bet on which song would top Spotify’s charts.
Background: Prediction Markets Targeting Music Charts
Kalshi launched a market titled “the most-streamed song in the U.S. in June,” allowing traders to wager on the chart outcome. Trading volume on the market reached roughly $3 million. Prior to the surge, the probability of “Earrings” taking the top spot was below 3 percent. The incident follows earlier cases of data manipulation in prediction markets, including altered war-map data for a Polymarket bet and alleged weather-station tampering investigated by French authorities.
Key Players
- Malcolm Todd – Emerging American singer whose mixtape *Sweet Boy* includes “Earrings.”
- Caleb Davies/Davis – Prominent Kalshi trader who flagged the sudden chart jump and later reported a $4,500 loss.
- Laura Batey – Spotify spokesperson on stream-manipulation detection.
- Elizabeth Diana – Kalshi spokesperson announcing an active investigation.
- Polymarket – Platform that denied any user could profit from the incident and stated Todd was not listed as an option.
Timeline of Events
- Early June – Kalshi market opens; “Earrings” holds <3 % probability of topping the chart.
- Mid-June – “Earrings” unexpectedly reaches Number One on Spotify’s U.S. daily chart.
- June 3 – Bloomberg reports Spotify’s detection of over 500,000 abnormal streams.
- Following detection – Spotify removes artificial streams; Kalshi and Polymarket are notified.
- Subsequent days – Public statements issued by Spotify, Kalshi, and Polymarket.
Data & Statistics
- 500,000+ artificial streams removed.
- Song fell from #1 to #4 after adjustment.
- $3 million total trading volume on the Kalshi market.
- Estimated 30-fold profit for traders who bet on the low-probability outcome.
- Caleb Davies claimed $1.2 million earned across prediction markets; Caleb Davis reported a $4,500 loss.
Official Statements & Responses
Spotify said its detection systems identified macro-program-generated traffic and that it does not pay royalties on manipulated streams. Kalshi indicated it is “actively investigating the matter in contact with Spotify.” Polymarket issued a denial, stating that Malcolm Todd was not offered as a betting option on its platform.
Criticism & Opposition
Caleb Davies/Davis criticized Kalshi for initially blaming Polymarket and for seeking “loopholes to evade responsibility.” Observers highlighted the speed of Kalshi’s payout process, noting that winners were paid before Spotify’s investigation concluded.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the trader’s name (Davies vs. Davis) and on the exact amount of profit claimed ($1.2 million vs. a 30-times return). Polymarket’s denial contrasts with Kalshi’s implication of its users, and no formal comment from Polymarket is recorded beyond the denial.
Verbatim Quotes
- “All streaming services face ever-changing stream manipulation,” — Laura Batey, Spotify spokesperson
- “Spotify has best-in-class detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams, and we don’t pay out associated royalties.” — Laura Batey
- “actively investigating the matter in contact with Spotify,” — Elizabeth Diana, Kalshi spokesperson
- “Kalshi was initially busy blaming Polymarket and then tried to find loopholes to evade responsibility.” — Caleb Davis, Kalshi trader
- “Polymarket, meanwhile, denied that its users could have profited from the incident, saying Malcolm Todd was not listed as an option on its Spotify market.” — Polymarket representative
Why It Matters
The case illustrates how prediction-market incentives can create direct financial motives to tamper with external benchmarks such as music charts. It raises regulatory questions about data integrity in emerging betting products and threatens the credibility of streaming platforms that rely on chart rankings for artist promotion and royalty calculations.
What’s Next
Spotify has demanded that Kalshi and Polymarket cease using its logo and clarify the lack of partnership. Both prediction-market platforms have pledged investigations, while regulators are expected to examine the intersection of financial betting and entertainment data for potential oversight.
