Human Influence Dominates Sea-Level Rise and Escalates Coastal Flooding

Peer-reviewed studies conclude that human-induced climate forcing is the primary driver of observed global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) since the 1970s. Slangen et al. (2017) show anthropogenic forcing dominates twentieth-century GMSLR, and Slangen, Church, Zhang and Monselesan (2014) quantify both anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea-level rise.

Nature

Early reconstructions of extreme high-water levels (Menéndez & Woodworth 2010; Marcos 2015) set baseline variability. Later work added satellite gravimetry (Riva et al. 2010) and expanded tide-gauge networks (Holgate et al. 2013; Haigh et al. 2023) to separate thermal expansion, glacier melt, and ice-sheet contributions, sharpening attribution.

Nature

Key contributors include A. B. Slangen, J. A. Church, B. Marzeion, M. Marcos, and T. Wahl, who use the Global Sea Level Observing System (GESLA v3), GRACE gravity data, and high-frequency GPS vertical motion records (Gravelle et al. 2023; Hammond et al. 2021). Regional work also assesses water-impoundment (Fiedler & Conrad 2010; Hawley et al. 2020) and land subsidence (Shirzaei et al. 2021).

Nature

Thermosteric expansion, driven by anthropogenic warming, is a major component of GMSLR (Slangen et al. 2014). Glacier loss, including uncharted glaciers, adds a measurable contribution (Parkes & Marzeion 2018). Greenland ice-sheet mass balance adds further rise (Fettweis et al. 2013). Water impoundment and regional land-motion create spatial variability (Fiedler & Conrad 2010; Wöppelmann & Marcos 2016). Accounting for tropical cyclones more than doubles the global population exposed to low-probability coastal flooding (Dullaart et al. 2021).

Nature

The increased frequency of extreme sea levels raises design water-level standards, as storm “Xaver” shaped flood criteria in the German Bight (Dangendorf et al. 2016). Broad-scale adaptation analyses (Wahl et al. 2017) show heightened exposure of coastal communities worldwide.

Nature

Collectively, model-evaluation studies (Church et al. 2013) and ensemble climate projections (Marcos et al. 2025) reinforce the consensus that anthropogenic climate change is the principal cause of recent sea-level rise and its acceleration of extreme coastal flooding.

Nature

Some authors argue for reassessing aerosol radiative forcing bounds (Stevens 2015) and its role in historical temperature trends (Rotstayn et al. 2015), underscoring residual uncertainty in the magnitude of anthropogenic contributions.

Nature

Attribution of sea-level rise from uncharted glaciers (Parkes & Marzeion 2018) versus documented glacier loss yields differing estimates. Vertical land-motion measurements vary across GPS reanalyses (Gravelle et al. 2023), highlighting gaps in regional subsidence data.

Nature

Future work will refine high-resolution climate modeling of daily dynamic sea-level extremes (Xu et al. 2025) and expand regional frequency analyses of extreme surges (Collings et al. 2024). Integrating tide-gauge, satellite, and GPS observations promises tighter attribution and better support for coastal adaptation planning.

Nature

• “Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970.” — A. B. Slangen et al., Authors

Nature

• “Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise.” — M. Marcos & A. Amores, Authors

Nature

• “Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes.” — B. Marzeion et al., Authors

Nature

• “Sea-level fingerprint of continental water and ice mass change from GRACE.” — R. E. M. Riva et al., Authors

Nature