Secularization and Falling Fertility in Finland

Researchers Henrik-Alexander Schubert, Vegard Skirbekk and Jessica Nisén analyzed Finnish administrative registers from 1995-2019, using state-church tax payments as an objective measure of affiliation. Controlling for income, education, employment and urbanicity, they compared birth registries of married and cohabiting couples. Over the period, Finland’s total fertility rate dropped 30 % (2010-2023). Birth rates were consistently higher among state-church members; couples where both partners were members had the highest transition to first-time parenthood, while mixed-religion couples showed lower rates. A counterfactual simulation indicated that if 2000-level church membership had persisted, the national fertility rate in 2019 would have been higher.

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A sustained fertility decline can slow economic growth, increase the share of elderly dependents and raise demand for social-welfare resources. Understanding how secularization influences family formation helps policymakers anticipate demographic pressures in societies experiencing similar cultural shifts.

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Schubert and his colleagues argue that secularization reduces fertility through two pathways: fewer religious individuals, who historically have larger families, and a lower probability of religious homogamy, which the data show boosts childbearing. They describe the resulting pattern as a “self-reinforcing downward loop” that suppresses births among remaining believers.

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The authors note that religion explains only a modest portion of the overall fertility decline. Economic uncertainty, housing-market pressures, shifting personal preferences and rising relationship instability also depress birth rates across Europe. Methodologically, the study excludes migrants—who often belong to non-taxed denominations—and captures only formal affiliation, not personal belief intensity or service attendance.

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• “Moving away from organized religion appears to be linked to declining birth rates in modern societies, according to new research.” — Study authors

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• “In Finland, the setting for this specific analysis, the total fertility rate fell by thirty percent between 2010 and 2023.” — Study authors

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• “The researchers found that birth rates remained measurably higher among state church members than among non-members throughout the entire twenty-four-year study period.” — Study authors

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• “The financial metric also only measures formal institutional affiliation, failing to capture the personal strength of a person’s religious beliefs or their frequency of attending religious services.” — Study authors

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• “Other cultural and financial shifts are driving the modern fertility decline globally, and a lack of religion is only one part of a larger picture.” — Study authors

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Future research will test the secularization-fertility link in countries without state-church tax systems, examine how belief intensity and gender dynamics shape reproductive decisions, and incorporate migrant populations to broaden the analysis.

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