Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

Cavs Lead LeBron Signing Odds at 58%, Warriors 18%

7/5/2026

32 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

LeBron Decision

Marc Stein and Jake Fischer report the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 58 percent chance to sign LeBron James.
The Warriors hold an 18 percent chance and re-signed Kristaps Porzingis, De’Anthony Melton and Al Horford.
Draymond Green declined his $27.6 million player option for the upcoming season.
Mario Chalmers says James will choose Golden State for the $15.1 million mid-level exception.
Rich Paul says James will not decide in the next few days.

Summary

Warriors Cap Shuffle

Golden State must clear $28 million by letting Draymond Green decline his $27.6 million option to fit LeBron James’s $15.1 million exception.
Warriors plan to re-sign Green on a multiyear deal over $28 million at a lower annual rate.
Adding Anthony Davis would likely cost Golden State all three tradable first-round picks.
Washington’s acquisition of DeAndre Ayton suggests the Wizards may keep Davis, reducing the Warriors’ trade leverage.

History

Historical Context

On July 1 2010 LeBron James became an unrestricted free agent and, after agent Leon Rose and Heat president Pat Riley’s persuasion, announced on ESPN’s “The Decision” that he would join the Miami Heat. The Heat entered free agency with roughly $46 million in cap space, enabling them to sign Wade and Bosh and launch the NBA’s first player-driven superteam, a model that reshaped league-wide player empowerment.

1 of 3

LeBron Decision

Marc Stein and Jake Fischer report the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 58 percent chance to sign LeBron James.
The Warriors hold an 18 percent chance and re-signed Kristaps Porzingis, De’Anthony Melton and Al Horford.
Draymond Green declined his $27.6 million player option for the upcoming season.
Mario Chalmers says James will choose Golden State for the $15.1 million mid-level exception.
Rich Paul says James will not decide in the next few days.

1 / 3