Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

June Jobs Miss Cuts Fed Odds, Yen Near 40-Year Low

7/7/2026

26 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

Jobs Miss Forecast

U.S. payrolls added 57,000 jobs in June, below expectations, cutting the chance of a Fed hike to 29 basis points by December.
The dollar index hovered around 101, while the yen stayed at 161.57-162.84 per dollar, a 40-year low that once prompted intervention.
With the euro buying $1.1435-$1.1442 and sterling rising to $1.34005—its highest in two weeks, markets await Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks.

Summary

Finance Ministry Fails

The Ministry of Finance’s ¥9.8 trillion 2024 foreign-exchange intervention failed to stop the yen’s drop to ¥162.30 per dollar.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s deficit-spending plan is raising inflation concerns and weakening the yen.
Japan’s debt has risen to 240 % of GDP, a level that Robin Brooks says fuels yen depreciation.
ING analyst Chris Turner predicts that intervention will become futile and that the yen could fall to ¥170 per dollar.

History

Historical Context

After the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis pushed the yen to ¥147, Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan responded in 1998 by expanding commercial-bank reserves to ¥35 trillion and buying about $320 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds, a move that temporarily lifted the yen by roughly 20 %. The episode foreshadowed today’s repeated yen-support spending amid a debt burden exceeding 260 % of GDP.

1 of 3

Jobs Miss Forecast

U.S. payrolls added 57,000 jobs in June, below expectations, cutting the chance of a Fed hike to 29 basis points by December.
The dollar index hovered around 101, while the yen stayed at 161.57-162.84 per dollar, a 40-year low that once prompted intervention.
With the euro buying $1.1435-$1.1442 and sterling rising to $1.34005—its highest in two weeks, markets await Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks.

1 / 3