Full Breakdown
Hong Kong Market Faces Potential Sell-Off as AI and Semiconductor Lock-Ups Expire
7/7/2026, 12:34:59 PM
Immediate Market Pressure from Lock-Up Expirations
Hong Kong’s equity market is poised for heightened selling pressure as the six-month lock-up periods for two high-profile technology issuers, Zhipu AI and MiniMax, conclude this week. On Tuesday, 25.68 million shares of Zhipu AI (trading as Knowledge Atlas Technology and known internationally as Z.ai) become tradable, followed by 150 million shares of MiniMax on Wednesday. The combined market value of the shares slated for release, based on mid-day pricing on Tuesday, totals approximately HK$90 billion (US$11.5 billion).
Background: Six-Month Lock-Ups and Recent Gains
Both issuers have experienced notable significant price appreciation since their listings, a pattern common among “hot” artificial-intelligence and semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong. The six-month lock-up periods for these companies are ending this week, aligning with broader market concerns about a potential liquidity drain and dual selling pressure from large-scale secondary placements as investors assess profit-taking opportunities. The lock-up periods are six months in length.
Key Players: Zhipu AI, MiniMax, and Fulbright Financial
Zhipu AI, an AI model developer, entered the market under the ticker Knowledge Atlas Technology and is also referenced as Z.ai in international contexts. MiniMax, another AI-focused firm, is similarly positioned within the sector. Stevan Tam, associate director at Fulbright Financial, provides market commentary on the unfolding situation.
Quantitative Snapshot
- Zhipu AI: 25.68 million shares released; total issued shares 446 million.
- MiniMax: 150 million shares released; total issued shares 314 million.
- Combined tradable value at lock-up expiry: HK$90 billion (US$11.5 billion).
- The released shares increase the pool of shares available for trading.
Analyst Outlook and Liquidity Concerns
Stevan Tam notes that the recent gains in these stocks may prompt investors to secure realized returns, thereby limiting further upward price momentum. He also warns that several of the same companies are contemplating large secondary share placements, which could compound selling pressure and strain market liquidity. The dual effect of profit-taking and new share issuance creates a scenario where upward price trajectories may be constrained.
Verbatim Quotes
- “These stocks have generally seen significant gains, and it is believed that investors may be looking to lock in some profits, which could limit their upwards momentum,” — Stevan Tam, Associate Director, Fulbright Financial
- “At the same time, large-scale placements could intensify selling pressure.” — Stevan Tam, Associate Director, Fulbright Financial
What’s Next: Upcoming Share Placements and Market Monitoring
Analysts anticipate that many of the same companies are eyeing large secondary share placements, which could further increase the supply of shares in the market. Market participants are advised to monitor trading volumes and price movements closely as the lock-up expirations and potential placements unfold over the coming days.
