John Arnold Funds $2.6 Million Research Grants on Online Sports Betting

Legal sports betting now exists in 39 states and D.C. after the 2018 Supreme Court decision. Mobile apps and prediction-market platforms have made wagering frictionless. The American Gaming Association reported $16.96 billion in industry revenue for 2025. Trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket grew from under $5 billion in September 2023 to about $24 billion in April 2024, with sports contracts accounting for roughly 87 percent of Kalshi activity. A Siena survey shows 46 percent of men aged 18-49 place bets, a group linked to potential financial strain.

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Congress has introduced several bills. One, sponsored by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), would ban prediction-market event contracts on sports and other public matters. Sens. John Curtis (R-UT) and Adam Schiff (D-CA) seek to bar platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports bets. A separate measure from Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) would let states limit advertising, restrict certain prop bets, and impose broader consumer protections. Prediction markets remain under CFTC oversight, while most sports-betting rules are set by states.

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Arnold, co-founder of Arnold Ventures, said the intensity and accessibility of online wagering have shifted dramatically since legalization. He urged state legislators to treat the product as fundamentally different from earlier models, noting that voluntary tax revenue from betting is attractive but does not offset possible consumer harms. Arnold also compared the evolution to legalized marijuana and digital pornography, where product potency and ease of access have increased. He reported ongoing discussions with state lawmakers to develop appropriate guardrails.

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Researchers warn that the surge in betting may create financial harms, especially for young men. The Siena survey’s finding that nearly half of men 18-49 are bettors fuels calls for stricter oversight. Lawmakers proposing bans on prediction-market sports contracts argue that peer-to-peer betting creates regulatory gaps distinct from traditional casino wagering.

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Arnold Ventures will allocate $2.6 million in grants to researchers at Princeton University, the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of Wisconsin over three years. The studies will examine gambling’s impact on financial well-being, household formation, mental health, and consumer behavior. Congress is expected to advance at least one pending bill before the session ends, while several states review their own betting statutes.

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• “Being able to bet over the phone has dramatically increased access and lowered friction,” — John Arnold, Founder, Arnold Ventures

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• “A lot of states jumped into legalizing sports betting in 2018. And I think that they were very attracted to the potential tax revenue,” — John Arnold, Founder, Arnold Ventures

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