US Trade Deficit Swells in May 2026 Amid AI-Driven Capital Goods Surge and Record Oil Exports

In May 2026 the United States posted a $77.6 billion trade deficit, a 42 percent jump from April. Imports rose 3.3 percent to $395.3 billion, while exports fell 3.2 percent to $317.7 billion, according to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. The gap widened as capital-goods imports surged and petroleum exports hit new highs.

ReutersThe Globe and Mail (Toronto)New York Times

President Donald Trump’s administration kept a flat 10 percent duty on all imports, set to expire later this month, after the Supreme Court struck down higher tariffs. To replace it, the administration announced two Section 301 investigations—one on forced-labor restrictions and another on foreign factory subsidies. At the same time, U.S. firms accelerated AI projects, boosting demand for imported semiconductors and related equipment.

New York Times

• Capital-goods imports reached a record $128.0 billion, driven by computer accessories, semiconductors and industrial engines.

Reuters

• Petroleum exports climbed to a record $38.4 billion amid the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.

Reuters

• The goods trade deficit expanded 28.4 percent to $106.5 billion, the highest level since March 2025.

Reuters

• Trade deficits persisted with Vietnam, Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, South Korea, India and Ireland, while surpluses were recorded with the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Australia, the United Kingdom and Brazil.

Reuters

Brean Capital’s chief economic advisor John Ryding warned the wider gap could shave about 1.7 percentage points from second-quarter real GDP growth.

Reuters

Nationwide financial-markets economist Oren Klachkin said strong domestic demand and inventory front-loading are behind the import surge, and noted that AI investment continues to progress strongly. The administration, citing the pending Section 301 probes, signaled intent to restore tariff levels to pre-court-decision rates, while Treasury officials described the flat duty as a temporary stopgap.

New York Times

Economists note that despite broad tariffs, the United States continues to import large volumes of AI-related capital goods and runs deficits with many partners, suggesting limited effectiveness of the tariff regime. Critics argue the approach may exacerbate supply-chain strains, especially after the Supreme Court’s curtailment of higher tariffs.

New York Times

Reuters poll forecast a $78.5 billion deficit, slightly above the $77.6 billion reported by the Commerce Department. The New York Times emphasized record service-export growth, while Reuters focused on goods-trade dynamics; both agree the overall deficit widened sharply.

The Globe and Mail (Toronto)

• “Imports convey solid U.S. domestic demand, though inventory frontloading likely lent a hand,” — Oren Klachkin, Financial Markets Economist, Nationwide

Reuters

• “AI investment appears to remain on a very solid track.” — Oren Klachkin, Financial Markets Economist, Nationwide

Reuters

• “From a GDP accounting perspective for the second quarter, the wider trade gap looks likely to 'subtract' about 1.7 percentage points from second-quarter real GDP growth,” — John Ryding, Chief Economic Advisor, Brean Capital

Reuters

The flat 10 percent duty expires in July, and the two Section 301 investigations are slated to begin in the coming weeks. Policymakers will weigh tariff adjustments against ongoing AI-driven import demand and the geopolitical backdrop of Middle-East oil markets.

New York Times