Oil Majors Plan Production Surge Amid Climate Crisis

Ten oil and gas firms—including Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron and seven peers—plan a 14% average output increase from 2024-2030, according to the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre at LSE. The plan relies on new wells and expanded upstream investment.

The Guardian

Six years ago, Greta Thunberg-led protests prompted governments to set net-zero targets. European oil majors initially pledged Paris-aligned cuts; BP announced a 40% production reduction and a ten-fold renewable investment increase under CEO Bernard Looney.

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Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron and seven peers aim for a 14% output rise. BP, now under CEO Meg O’Neill, moved from Bernard Looney’s “force for good” pledge to a “simpler and stronger” strategy. Equinor lifted its 2030 target by 6%; Petrobras seeks 21% more oil; Exxon and Chevron plan 25% and 15% hikes, respectively. OPEC officials warned protests are the industry’s greatest threat.

The Guardian

The 14% output rise exceeds the IEA’s 5.9% business-as-usual forecast, which predicts a 2.9 °C rise by 2100. European majors posted a 43% profit jump to $22 billion. Equinor +6%, Petrobras +21%, Exxon +25% and Chevron +15% by 2030. BP profit more than doubled.

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Attribution studies link the recent European heatwave—called the “most severe and widespread heatwave to have ever affected this large a region of Europe”—to climate change. The surge coincides with a strong El Niño, rising Amazon fire risk, polar melt and looming ecological tipping points.

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The IEA says alignment with the Paris Agreement requires “no new long-term oil and gas exploration or development projects.” OPEC officials described climate protests as the industry’s greatest challenge, noting public opposition as a policy pressure point.

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Analysts argue that shareholder-first strategies create perverse incentives, especially where subsidies persist. Climate activists claim back-sliding on renewable commitments undermines net-zero targets. Observers note investor-driven funding of far-right European groups seeks to block net-zero policies.

The Guardian

Company plans for a 14% output rise contrast with the IEA’s 5.9% projection, highlighting a gap between corporate ambitions and international forecasts. BP’s pledged 40% production cut was later reduced to 25%, and details of the $10 billion annual oil-gas spending lack public breakdowns.

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• “greatest threat” the industry had ever faced. — OPEC spokesperson

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• “a force for good as well as a provider of competitive returns” — Bernard Looney, former BP CEO

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• “simpler and stronger” — Meg O’Neill, BP CEO

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• “The IEA could not have put this more clearly: to align with the Paris agreement’s goal of keeping global heating well below 2C, there can be no new long-term oil and gas exploration or development projects.” — International Energy Agency

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The IEA warning and the forecast of a severe El Niño have prompted calls for windfall taxes and tighter regulation of new oil and gas projects. Ongoing profit growth may increase scrutiny from climate NGOs and policymakers seeking to align energy production with temperature goals.

The Guardian