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OBR warns UK debt could hit 300% by 2075.

7/8/2026

Summary

OBR Warns

The Office for Budget Responsibility warned UK debt will become unsustainable without action.
Its baseline scenario projects debt rising from 95% of GDP in 2030-31 to 300% by 2075-76.
Defence spending must rise by £28 billion per year to meet the 3.5% of GDP target.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the OBR endorsed a plan that keeps borrowing below the G7 average and protects a £120 billion capital-spending boost.

Summary

Ellis Urges Rethink

William Ellis, economist at IPPR, urged a rethink of fiscal rules to meet ageing, climate and productivity challenges.
He said OBR modelling shows that restoring pre-crisis productivity would cut debt by about 120 percentage points of GDP and lower primary-balance tightening to 1.8 % of GDP.
IPPR warned that the rules, despite Burnham's praise, foster short-term focus that harms investment and that revising them could free funds for climate spending and reforms.

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OBR Warns

The Office for Budget Responsibility warned UK debt will become unsustainable without action.
Its baseline scenario projects debt rising from 95% of GDP in 2030-31 to 300% by 2075-76.
Defence spending must rise by £28 billion per year to meet the 3.5% of GDP target.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the OBR endorsed a plan that keeps borrowing below the G7 average and protects a £120 billion capital-spending boost.

1 / 2