Fast-Growing European Economies Projected to Outpace Eurozone

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects eurozone GDP expanding at an average 1.2 % per year from 2027-31, compared with 1.4 % for the EU and roughly 3.2 % globally.

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Moldova is forecast to grow 3.5 % annually (peak 3.7 % in 2028) on EU financing, reforms and remittances. Serbia’s 3.52 % growth stems from investment for Expo 2027, transport upgrades and copper-mining exports. Ukraine is projected at 3.8 % (4.2 % in 2028) with $600 bn reconstruction spending; a downside scenario cuts growth to 1 % if fighting continues. Kosovo’s growth of 4 % relies on household consumption, diaspora inflows and spending, but remains demand-led. Malta is expected to expand 4 % per year, driven by tourism, gaming, financial services and foreign workers, while labour shortages push productivity.

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The IMF says Moldova’s recovery is “supported by a good harvest, strong domestic demand, and substantial EU financing,” but warns war in Ukraine and any slippage in EU-linked reforms are the biggest risks. For Serbia, the IMF notes economic buffers from lower inflation and fiscal discipline, yet flags political tensions before 2027 elections and stresses public investment must yield productivity. Regarding Ukraine, IMF calls the outlook “exceptionally uncertain” because war continues to take a heavy toll on population and economy. In Kosovo, IMF says timely implementation of the EU New Growth Plan could boost growth and employment. For Malta, IMF warns influx of foreign workers has strained infrastructure and public services, highlighting limits of the labour-intensive model.

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Geopolitical uncertainty, especially the war in Ukraine, could cut Ukraine’s growth to 1 % in 2027 under the IMF’s downside scenario. Political tensions in Serbia before the 2027 elections raise doubts about the durability of its investment-driven expansion. Moldova’s reliance on EU financing makes it vulnerable to any reform slowdown. Kosovo’s demand-led, import-heavy economy lacks a competitive export base, exposing it to external shocks.

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The IMF’s baseline assumes the war will wind down and reconstruction will proceed, yet its downside scenario projects only 1 % growth for Ukraine in 2027, revealing a stark divergence. Sources give no detailed figures on Serbia’s public-investment programme or the exact EU funds allocated to Moldova, limiting assessment of fiscal sustainability.

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• “supported by a good harvest, strong domestic demand, and substantial EU financing.” — IMF

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• “The Fund's own caveat is blunt: the biggest risks are the war in Ukraine and any slippage in EU-linked reforms.” — IMF

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• “The outlook remains exceptionally uncertain as the war continues to take a heavy toll on the population and economy,” — IMF

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• “Timely implementation of the EU New Growth Plan could provide an additional boost to growth and employment,” — IMF

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Serbia will host Expo 2027; Moldova’s EU accession talks continue; Ukraine’s reconstruction financing depends on conflict resolution; Malta aims to raise productivity through infrastructure, education and innovation.

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