2026 College Football Season: Conference Outlook and Key Storylines

Bill Connelly’s preseason review covers all 138 FBS teams, projecting each Power Five, Group of Six, and Group of Five conference for the second year of the 12-team CFP. A different Big Ten team won the national title in each of the past three seasons.

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The SEC, historically the strongest conference, has missed the CFP championship game for three straight years. The Big Ten’s rotating champions—Michigan (2023), Ohio State (2024), Indiana (2025)—show its depth. In the Group of Five, James Madison and Tulane earned CFP spots, while North Texas displayed a high-octane offense against Power Five foes.

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The Pac-12 added six newcomers—Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Utah State, Colorado State, Texas State—joining Oregon State and Washington State in a “new-look” league projected to lead the Group of Six in average SP+. The Mountain West, now comprising those six plus the two legacy Pac-12 schools, is expected to rank second. The ACC anticipates a Duke-Miami duel, while the Big Ten’s top contenders include Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. The SEC’s race centers on Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas Tech transfers.

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The Pac-12 announced a “flex-week” schedule to integrate its new members and boost competitive balance. The Mountain West pledged to maintain the second-best average SP+ among the Group of Six. The SEC said it aims to return to the national championship conversation after a three-year gap.

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> “The new-look Pac-12 begins play with six new teams, a fun flex-week idea and the best projected average SP+ rating of any conference in the Group of 6.” — Bill Connelly, ESPN analyst

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> “The SEC remains the strongest conference in the land, the league is in the unfamiliar position of not having played for the national championship for three years running.” — Bill Connelly

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> “One year does not a dynasty make, but just as the offseason has been defined by Texas Tech, the conference’s 2026 season will be defined by whether anyone can make a serious run at the champs, even without Brendan Sorsby at quarterback.” — Bill Connelly

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> “In the Group of 5, James Madison and Tulane both made it to the CFP, while North Texas showed the big boys what high-octane offense really means.” — Bill Connelly

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Connelly’s outlook suggests the 2026 CFP could feature a Big Ten champion, an SEC contender, and a Group of Five entrant, potentially reshaping Power Five dominance. The Pac-12’s SP+ edge may produce a credible challenger, while the MAC’s upset potential adds intrigue to late-season games.

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The season opens in late August, with marquee games such as Miami vs. Notre Dame in November. Conference championships begin in early December, followed by CFP semifinals and the national championship in early January 2027.

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