Education Now Outpaces Race as America’s Main Ideological Divider

An analysis of the Cooperative Election Study covering the five most recent U.S. presidential elections (2008-2024) shows a sharp decline in ideological gaps between racial groups and a concurrent rise in gaps by education level. In 2008, White respondents were the most conservative and Black respondents the most liberal; by 2024, those racial differences had “decreased dramatically.” The shift is driven chiefly by Black and Hispanic voters moving toward conservatism, while White voters’ ideology changed little.

Psypost

In contrast, education-based polarization widened. In 2008, college graduates were the most liberal and those with a high-school diploma or less were more conservative. By 2020, college-educated respondents became markedly more liberal, but the 2024 wave saw all education groups shift rightward, leaving high-school-or-less respondents the most conservative and college-educated respondents roughly at their 2016 liberal level. The pattern was “most dramatic among White Americans.”

Psypost

• Survey respondents: over 250,000 total (32,800 in 2008; 54,435 in 2012; 64,600 in 2016; 61,000 in 2020; 60,000 in 2024).

Psypost

• Participants answered 132 policy items covering taxes, abortion, immigration, health care, and the environment to place them on a liberal-conservative continuum.

Psypost

• Gallup’s 2025 averages list 35 % of Americans as conservative, 33 % as moderate, and 28 % as liberal.

Psypost

The research suggests that education, rather than race, now structures Americans’ policy preferences, reshaping electoral dynamics and party strategies. As “educational polarization occurred across all racial groups,” political campaigns may increasingly target voters by schooling level, potentially amplifying cultural divides linked to college attendance. The findings also challenge prior work that linked educational polarization mainly to white voters, indicating a broader realignment of American politics.

Psypost

• “The results above demonstrate that over the past five presidential election years, ideological differences by race have declined dramatically, while education has become an increasingly prominent ideological divider,” — Stephen Jessee, study author

Psypost

• “Americans’ ideologies have become more similar across races, driven primarily by Blacks moving sharply to the right, but also by Hispanics becoming slightly more conservative.” — Stephen Jessee

Psypost

• “The trend of educational polarization occurred across all racial groups, but was most dramatic among White Americans.” — Stephen Jessee

Psypost

• “These findings stand in contrast to others that have found that educational polarization in partisan vote margins, as opposed to the ideological positions studied here, has increased only among whites and not among minorities and demonstrate that American politics have realigned not just in terms of previously documented partisan vote shares but also in terms of policy-based ideological positions.” — Stephen Jessee

Psypost