Full Breakdown
2026 Open Championship: Betting Odds, Model Projections, and Early Favorites at Royal Birkdale
7/10/2026, 12:43:33 PM
Event Overview
The 2026 Open Championship opens on Thursday, July 16 at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler returns to protect his title, while Jordan Spieth—the 2017 winner at the same venue—also lines up. This year’s major-winner roster includes Rory McIlroy (Masters), Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) and Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open).
Betting Landscape & Odds
Two major sportsbooks have released early odds. DraftKings lists Scheffler at +500, McIlroy at +750, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele at +1,600, and Englishman Tommy Fleetwood at +1,600. CBS Sports reports Scheffler at +550, McIlroy at +850, and Fleetwood at +1,400. Other notable odds include Matt Fitzpatrick (+2,000), Ludvig Åberg (+2,500), Bryson DeChambeau (+2,800) and Brooks Koepka (+5,000).
SportsLine Model Projections
SportsLine’s proprietary model—built by DFS professional Mike McClure and run 10,000 simulations per event—has a track record of accurately forecasting majors. For the Open, the model flags two surprises:
- Tommy Fleetwood, despite being the third-favorite English golfer, is projected to “barely finish inside top 5,” suggesting a value bet to fade him.
- Ludvig Åberg, a first-time Open contender with no major win, emerges as a “top-3 contender” on the projected leaderboard, even though his betting line sits near +2,200.
These projections contrast with the traditional odds board, highlighting potential upside for bettors who follow the model’s output.
Key Contenders
- Scottie Scheffler – defending champion, odds range from +500 to +550.
- Rory McIlroy – recent Masters champion, odds between +750 and +850.
- Tommy Fleetwood – English favorite, odds vary from +1,400 to +1,600; model predicts a modest finish.
- Ludvig Åberg – rising Swedish talent, odds around +2,200; model places him among the top three.
- Brooks Koepka – five-time major winner with a T-6 finish at Royal Birkdale in 2017, odds sit at +5,000.
- Bryson DeChambeau – seeking his first major cut of the season, listed at +2,800.
Criticism & Market Skepticism
Commentary from Golf Channel notes that “neither Bryson DeChambeau nor Brooks Koepka are exactly ‘sexy names’ to stand in the winner’s circle,” underscoring market uncertainty about players lacking recent headline success. The same analysis points out that oddsmakers’ early lines may shift as form and course conditions evolve.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The two primary odds sources differ on several key numbers: Scheffler’s odds vary by 50 points (+500 vs. +550), McIlroy by 100 points (+750 vs. +850), and Fleetwood by 200 points (+1,400 vs. +1,600). No official statement from the Royal Birkdale organizing committee or the R&A has been released regarding field changes or prize adjustments, leaving a gap in tournament-specific information beyond betting data.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Scottie Scheffler is the defending Open Championship champion, while Jordan Spieth won this event the last time it was at Royal Birkdale in 2017.” — *CBS Sports*
- “SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.” — *CBS Sports*
- “One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2026: Fleetwood, the third favorite and the lowest English golfer on the board at +1400, stumbles and barely finishes inside top 5.” — *CBS Sports*
- “Another surprise: Ludvig Aberg is a top-3 contender on the projected leaderboard despite never having won a major and having slightly longer odds at +2200.” — *CBS Sports*
